re: Ouch! 275k Jobs Added in February

quote:

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But who is looking for an actual contraction?

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I am. Whether they say it out loud or not, I believe the Fed is as well. As long as we have positive GDP growth (especially if it's anything like Q3 & Q4), raising rates risks inflation going back up due to the liquidity problem we still have. We're going to have positive GDP as long as we have strong job creation and low Unemployment, but we're also going to have continued sticky inflation.

So something has to give and that something has to be a contraction. That's why all their talk of a "soft landing" is only as credible as was their talk about inflation being "transitory".