re: Convinced Trump will win??

quote:

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Trump has little chance. WI, MI, PA are lost to him. AZ is dubious.

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What we have as a go-by is the polling and election results in these states and how they compare to each other:

2016 Trump/Hillary polling.
2016 Trump/Hillary results.
2020 Trump/Biden polling.
2020 Trump/Biden results.
and now 2024 Trump/Biden polling.

How is 2024 Trump/Biden polling fit within that data? Who does it favor?

If you answer those questions with a little digging you will see Trump is polling better in those states than he did versus Hillary when he won those states in 2016. He is polling MUCH better right now than he did versus Biden in 2020 at the same time.

I'm not saying definitively that Trump will win these battleground states. What I'm refuting is your assertion that "Trump as little chance". I'm assuming "little chance" is a lower probability number than 2016 versus Hillary. IMO I believe Trump has a better than 50% chance to win WI, AZ and GA. Michigan is just under 50% for Trump and PA is about 40% for Trump. That's just my judgement right now.

Those are good enough chances to not lose hope.