re: Trump versus Biden battle ground state polling trends. Updated with 2020 polls.

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I do truly believe that AZ is gone though. The amount of California transplants that have left the results of their voting habits in the rearview mirror to the west but brought those same habits to AZ with them, is astonishing and more than anyone realizes.

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In 2020, Arizona flipped a Dem House seat and now has a delegation that's 6-R and 3-D. And we're not talking about lukewarm Republicans - Eli Crane, Andy Biggs and Debbie Lesko are 3 of the most conservative members of the House. Republicans did this in spite of weak candidates heading the ticket (senate races and gov).

It has been since 1992 that Democrats controlled a single state legislative body (Senate).

Until Kari Lake yipped the 2022 layup Republicans had for governor, a Dem had held the governorship for only 5 of the previous 30 years, and not since 2008. Four years before KL stepped on her dick, the Republican governor won his race by 14 pts.

Arizona has more registered Republicans than Democrats.

Arizona has more registered Independents than Democrats.

Chandler, which you suggest is becoming deeply blue - is less than 30% registered Democrat.

As long as Trump doesn't do something retarded, he'll win Arizona comfortably.