re: Daniel Jeremiah's 2024 NFL mock draft 1.0

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His ADOT is more of a function of the play calling than his arm strength.

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I agree. He could only run the offense he was in, and he did it to near perfection. It doesn't mean he doesn't have the requisite arm strength, more that he just wasn't allowed to show it. Doesn't mean he does have it either, though. (Though I think, at his size, he likely does). That's why I called it more of an "unknown" than a "concern" as of now.

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I used to think he was more of a Jake locker type but I think I see some Dak Prescott in him. Of course, he was another guy with a lukewarm pro stock. But I think you are seeing Nix move up because teams learn from their mistakes.

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I agree with all that. I'm not sure he'll go top 15, but I do think somebody will at least take a shot on him at the end of the 1st. Again, depending on how he throws. Things I like:

--has started 61 P5 games (and there's still a correlation between games started in college an NFL success, especially early. Assuming they have the requisite physical traits--I think he does)

--played in a ton of big games in hostile environments (beat Oregon and Bama as a true freshman in '19, and gave LSU their biggest scare of the season)

--nice size at 6'2" 220

--good athlete who can escape the pocket to extend plays and pickup enough yards to move the chains

--had 38 rushing TDs in his career, including a ridiculous 14 in '22

--protects the football (had a 108 to 26 TD:INT ratio in 5 years, only throwing 6, 7, 3, 7, 3 picks respectively)

--only "bad" seasons were the crazy 2020 season that got Malzahn fired (still went 6-4 and made it to the Citrus Bowl) and the disaster that was the Brian Harsin experiment in '21

--good football pedigree (Dad played QB at Auburn, younger brother is a safety at Clemson)

--is 24 (could be a negative if you're looking for a 15-year "face of the franchise" guy, but a positive if you're looking for a guy ready to come in immediately and understand defenses and command a huddle and maximize production on a rookie deal. Which is why I think he'll wind up going in the 1st round somewhere--that 5th year option will be big for whatever team winds up taking him)

--no history of significant injuries despite starting 61 games and having 405 career rising attempts

--dude cares. I know a lot of us were happy to see him lose to Washington because it won Jayden the Heisman and kinda made fun of how devastated he was after the loss, but it showed he cared. So did playing in the Fiesta Bowl against Liberty when most guys in his situation would have opted out and nobody would have blamed him. Caring doesn't guarantee success, obviously, but I think it shows he'll put in the work.

I don't love Bo Nix. And I'm not clamoring for the Saints to draft him, especially at 14. Most of this post has just been playing Devi's advocate a bit and pushing back on the "he sucks, he's not an NFL QB" narrative, which I think is absurd. He may not ever be great, probably won't be. But I think he's an NFL starter and could be pretty good in the right system surrounded by the right weapons. I mean, I don't think there's much of a drop off, if any, if you substitute him for Tua in Miami, for example.

Finally, today I learned "He is married to Izzy Smoke, a former Auburn cheerleader." Helluva name.