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Message
re: Hot Take: Natural gas prices do not coorelate with temp
Posted on 1/17/24 at 5:26 pm to Jag_Warrior
Posted on 1/17/24 at 5:26 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
There’s a reason that nat gas trading is called “the widow maker”.
Got my arse burned many many years ago trading 3x leveraged nat gas ETFs. Carried forward losses for nearly a decade.
Ultimately, OP is kinda right in that you can’t just buy nat gas going into the winter because it will be cold. That’s already priced into futures contracts.
3
Posted on 1/17/24 at 6:57 pm to slackster
I’ve felt your pain. I played with UNG short options a few years ago. I fell for the lure of that sweet high IV. Then I learned that in the case of nat gas related underlyings, IV isn’t really understated, as tends to be the case with most other securities. 
So I don’t do dat no mo!
So I don’t do dat no mo!
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:00 am to slackster
Oh we all learned. The biggest driving factor is storage.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 4:10 pm to slackster
quote:
many years ago trading 3x leveraged nat gas ETFs
A 3x leveraged holding saved my rear end once in natural gas. Only positive thing about it. The rest of the times, fees and market took my money.
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