re: Southeast Severe Weather: January 8-9, 2024

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This is where you employ the many tools provided to get a better understanding of the conditions that you need to prepare for in your location. It’s not hard. Most of it is contained in this very thread.

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Nah, asking people to take a bit of time to understand such things is entirely unreasonable. They need to be spoon fed exactly what will happen in their yard and the exact time it will happen. When a forecast verifies they always cry "no warning". When it busts (or doesn't reach its ceiling) they yell "overhyped". It is a story as old as weather forecasting itself.

And to toot my own horn, I noted the most likely failure mode on the first page:

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The question is going to be moisture and how far inland adequate moisture is able to get. There will be plenty of shear (spin) and okay CAPE. This is one of those setups that the Mobile area hates.

The main change since the initial 15% on the extended outlook is the area has been expanded farther North. Looks to be messy ahead of the front, but any cell that can last will have rotation. Eventually, it should line out into what is looking like a nasty QLCS that would likely have embedded rotation.

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I went on to pretty much nail how it would play out. That isn't some huge accomplishment, it was one of the more obvious forecasts (concerning failure modes) there is. Every discussion put out by the SPC noted it, and it is why they stuck with the Enhanced when a lot of people were crying for a Mod upgrade.