re: China Is Gearing Up to Invade

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I agree with a lot of your points. One thing that China has done recently is destroy non-essential crops produced by farmers. They mandate now is grain and rice. Personally, I believe it will be a drone war to start. There are currently US Marines training specialized military here.

The ground army is a joke. Their training is terrible which consists of sweeping floors, washing windows (no I'm not making fun of karate kid) and they literally fire 4-10 bullets throughout the 4months to a year of mandatory service.

China anding a ground assault will be very hard as beach heads are small and shorelines are already packed with anti landing structures. They are also currently lining river ways.

Unfortunately I don't think the chips act will help in getting an advanced chip manufacturer into the UA. At least not from TSMC. The worker demand needed and pay is something that is hard to hire. I have friends who work there telling me this why it won't work. Americans aren't simply willing to work for 12 hours with mediocre pay. It would have to be subsidized by the US government which could happen to meet worker pay demands.

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TSMC is putting over $40 Billion into Arizona alone right now. They offered me some serious money to work for them but I didn't want to move. The labor model is different in the US but they also are getting subsidized and save a ton by making the chips in the US. Intel is also going to be making a run at TSMC and focus more on manufacturing.

My point on the training is less about those folks being elite warriors but moreso that they have at least been exposed. On an island of over 40 million it doesn't take much, if 5% want to really fight there is no way China can take the island. As you mentioned it's going to be virtually impossible to land and if they do it is going to have to be in a limited number of small spaces with an extremely well prepared force waiting for them that heavily outnumbers the invaders. I just don't know how that works.

Unless China can find a way to get at least 2 million or so troops on the island I don't see it working and I don't know of any realistic way China gets 20% of that, probably a lot less. You have to have total air superiority combined with naval superiority and a protected landing area to get those troops there. It's just such an improbable scenario and for it to even get to step 1 it means China has to feel confident the US and Japan won't get involved because is either does it's over, China will be lucky to get any ships to the island at all.

In the end if China wants it bad enough and is willing to take that much risk it has a shot. It just will end them if they do and they won't really gain much. It's not like they will be able to just take over TSMC with the factories intact and start shipping product. The Taiwan they will capture will be a giant rubble filled with rebels that are armed in the mountains and will resist until the end.