re: I think 10-2 with our schedule gets into the playoff

To start off, you have to take into account that the Pac-12 will no longer be a power 5 conference.

In 2024 you will have a Power 4 of:
SEC, B10, B12, and ACC

Starting in 2024, ALL 4 of the Power 4 conferences will be changing their Conference Championship bids to the two teams with the best conference record. This will prevent the possibility of those weird 4 or 5 loss teams making a championship and winning it to steal a playoff spot.

So the 6 highest ranked conference champions are GUARANTEED a playoff spot. Which means the Power 4 conferences are all but guaranteed 4 spots. Next we look at the new Group of 6. Historically, the highest ranked winners of these conferences fall outside of the top 12. Which means in all likely 2 of the top 12 highest ranked teams will be left out of the playoffs all together. This model ends up being more close to the division champ + wildcard system the NFL uses.

How the playoff rankings will end up looking on an average year.

First Round Bye
1) SEC Champ
2) B10 Champ
3) B12 Champ
4) ACC Champ

Plays First round in home stadium
5) G6 Champ
6) G6 Champ
7) #5 Team
8) #6 Team

No extra benefit
9) #7 Team
10) #8 Team
12) #9 Team
12) #10 Team

Matchups are:

Round 1 (R1)
R11) 5 v 12
R12) 6 v 11
R13) 7 v 10
R14) 8 v 9

Round 2 (R2)
R21) 1 v R14 winner
R22) 2 v R13 winner
R23) 3 v R12 winner
R24) 4 v R11 winner

Semi-final (R3)
R31) R21 winner v R24 winner
R32) R22 winner v R23 winner

Final
R31 winner v R32 winner