quote:
The bar has moved post Dinardo. This response is disingenuous. Do you not think the bar at LSU should be 10 regular season wins in a 12 game regular season?

OK, let’s look at the post-Dinardo era since you brought it up. In the 22 years between Dinardo and Kelly, LSU won 10+ regular season games 8 times. 8 of 22 years, or 36%.

Here is the breakout by coach:
Saban: 1 of 5 years
Miles: 6 of 12 years
Orgeron: 1 of 5 years

The 12 game regular season doesn’t change much - Saban went 5-3 in conference play 3 of his 5 years. The one season you could argue might have been different with a 12 game schedule is 2004. Our OOC games that year were unranked Oregon State, Troy, and Arkansas State. Which brings me to my next point…

OOC opponents make a big difference. Kelly has gone 6-2 in conference play each of his first two years. In the 22 years between Dinardo and Kelly, LSU finished 6-2 or better in conference play 10 times.

Breakdown by coach:
Saban: 2 of 5 seasons
Miles: 6 of 12 seasons
Orgeron: 2 of 5 seasons.

We only finished better than 6-2 in conference play 4 times in those 22 years.

The biggest difference is the quality of our “big” OOC opponent. FSU finished #11 in the AP last year and is top 5 this year. Remember when I said we only finished with 10+ regular season wins 8 of 22 years? Well, only 3 of those 8 years included an OOC matchup against a team that was actually ranked at the end of the year. (Interestingly, those were 3 years we played for national titles.) The other 5 featured cupcakes OOC.

This idea that “10+ regular season wins is the floor” is completely ridiculous. It’s a standard that no coach in LSU history has met consistently. It might be a goal but it’s absurd to say that it’s an expectation - especially when you’re 1 year removed from 6-7.

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Posted by CatfishJohn

Member since Jun 2020

13711 posts

Posted on 11/27/23 at 12:33 pm to lostinbr

quote:
OK, let’s look at the post-Dinardo era since you brought it up. In the 22 years between Dinardo and Kelly, LSU won 10+ regular season games 8 times. 8 of 22 years, or 36%.

I think the fair way to play it is after Saban had our program built for sustained success (and 20 years). In that 20 years, we've also had two firings and a shortened COVID year that just doesn't count. That's 8/17 remaining years, but we can call it 8/19. That's almost half.

Also interesting is that Brian Kelly had 10 regular season wins 6 times at Notre Dame, including his last 4 years there. He knows how to get it done, it has been proven to be doable at LSU almost half the time with non-lame duck head coaches.