re: Every time I passed on a real estate purchase because the price was too high...

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Now consider if your home appreciates 5%/yr

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Long-term American real estate has compounded at like 100% over the past century. 5% a year would be insane.

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but in general, rent almost never beats owning.

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This is simply false. It's highly situational and it's the type of "thinking" that led in part to the housing bubble 15 years ago.

I also think your P & I numbers and tax assumptions are off.

I also don't see any allowance for maintenance - which a conservative analysis would allow at least 1% of property value per year for.