The electability of Donald Trump

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It seems to me that the numbers being what they are, Trump is actually the only Republican candidate who stands a chance in the general

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Delusion.

Based on your premise republicans will get behind whomever the nominee is. However, can’t win with just Republican votes and the truth is a candidate not named Trump will pull much more support from independents, which is crucial to win, than Trump. Plus a younger candidate could really use Biden’s age against him. Another 80 year old can’t do that.

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It seems to me that the numbers being what they are, Trump is actually the only Republican candidate who stands a chance in the general, and that we must all line up behind him.

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There are some people who would vote Republican who claim they will not vote for Trump in the general election if he wins the primary. That's true.

But it is my perception that there are far more who say they will not vote for anyone else who gets nominated.

As I have pointed out many times before, there are only a handful of states that are actually in play to decide the presidency. We can quibble over whether than number is 6 or 11 or some other number, but the point is that data has to be selective to be meaningful in this discussion. Looking at national polls doesn't mean much at all.

Even if you ignore that Trump is not popular with swing voters (again, the people who actually elect a POTUS), you're (not you personally, the Royal 'You') being delusional if you think Trump will be able to mount an effective campaign over the next year with all of the legal battles he's facing.

And finally, he could very well wind up being convicted of one or more of these charges. Not all of them are without merit.

I get that the Democrats are going all Scientology on him with the main tactic being harassment, but if even one of the now 91 charges against him sticks he could go to prison.

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There is no ideological reason for a MAGA person to hate DeSantis

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It's cuz DeSantis has backing from some big corporations. Blah Blah Blah.

Trump got a million from Pfizer who fricked the vaccine at his inauguration but apparently "that's different"

Same with DOW and Bank of America

The Pfizer shite is fricking scandalous especially that billions upon billions contract they received for the vaccine. frick outta here

Be one of 100 million to vote for Trump!

That is our only chance to save what is left of this country.

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Failure is a choice.

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So we can put you down as another vote for Joe in the general when Trump is the nominee?

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I have yet to see one of the Rob supporters come out against this persecution

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That’s complete and total bullshite and you know it.

There have been some great counter arguments.

1. Age. On this one I almost 100% agree with one small caveat. Trump was also old in 2020 and effectively made that argument against Joe Biden. Trump is a much more vibrant and energetic person than Biden and that contrast will stand out. That said, I do wish we were going to get something that wasn’t an ego contest between two men with one foot in the grave.

2. Independent voters. I think it’s true that Trump is less likely to sway undecided voters because undecided voters already have an opinion on Trump. However, Trump also brings a gaggle of low information conspiracy theorists into his block that no one else can get any claim too. DeSantis might be able to score better with some of the undecideds. I’m not sure how many though. He is a culture warrior through and through, and I get the feeling a lot of undecideds are tired of both the SJW radical gender ideology types and the Christian make and enforce laws that curtail things that they see as their rights (namely abortion and weed, but also gay marriage). I think a lot of them just want the government and media to let them alone. Can some of them be persuaded to vote for DeSantis who would never consider Trump? Almost certainly, but will it be enough to make a difference especially after a year of the media attacking him as mercilessly as they do Trump? I’m much less sure of that.
3. Voter turnout. It seems to me that Trump is a real double edged sword here, in that he will definitely inspire more republicans to come out and vote for him than any other candidate, but he will also inspire more democrats to come out and vote against him than any other candidate. If a sizable position of his voters stay home because they feel he was cheated from the nomination. it won’t matter. The Dems win. It looks instead like it’s going to be another barn burner and that we need all hands in deck.

All of this is to say, I can see several reasons for supporting DeSantis in the primary. He is more across the board conservative than Trump, he is more consistent, and he was a more effective governor in Florida than Trump was a president in Washington. But those aren’t the arguments that get made here nearly as often as DeSantis is electable and Trump isn’t. As far as I can tell Trump is either more electable or it is a tossup.

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I've seen several polls that only 2% of the electorate were undecided about Trump, while 20%+ were undecided about Desantis.

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I totally get that, which is why I think it’s a good argument. I just don’t know how many of that 20% breaks DeSantis way after a year of media focus and that he is a culture warrior. I have no doubt he gets some of that 20%, and that’s significant. But if he loses a lot of Trump voters in the process, can he make up enough in the undecideds to over come it? I think things get a lot dicier. Of course it’s still five months to Iowa or whatever so a lot can change.