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re: 2016 Election Swing

Posted on 6/4/23 at 2:28 pm to
Posted by Message Board User
Member since Dec 2006
6709 posts
Posted on 6/4/23 at 2:28 pm to
quote:

-Trump outworked Hillary in the midwest swing states
-Jill Stein played spoiler in the midwest swing states
-Trump won the vote among those who disliked both candidates but were driven to vote against someone
-Late-deciding voters broke for Trump

Those were the biggest reasons. The 2nd point is big because Trump carried MI/PA/WI by approximately 78K votes combined. Jill Stein was on the ballot and took 132K votes away from Hillary in those 3 states. Without Jill Stein, Hillary wins those 3 states and the Electoral College.


All of this too.

Just a really lucky confluence of factors (which will never be repeated again) that resulted in Trump barely squeaking by the most disliked presidential candidate in history.
Posted by RammerJammer91
Member since Jan 2016
5224 posts
Posted on 6/4/23 at 2:45 pm to
I went back a few weeks ago and looked at the RCP average with other Republicans. Kasich and Rubio were up on Hillary by 7 and 4 points respectively. That's how hated she was. Think about that...if Marco freaking Rubio was the nominee Hillary would've lost more states and lost the Popular Vote. Hillary probably loses MN, NV, and NH at a minimum with CO and VA being coin-flips.
Posted by Fat Bastard
coach, investor, gambler
Member since Mar 2009
73739 posts
Posted on 6/4/23 at 11:49 pm to
Message board cuck
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