re: ‘Biden and Me’: DeSantis Privately Tells Donors Trump Can’t Win

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Desantis has no chance of getting the votes that Trump got, none.

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In 2016 and 2020 there were over 5.5 million people who voted for at least 1 down-ballot Republican but not Trump. The majority of these people live in suburban counties. They're not natural allies of the Democratic coalition, they're Republicans and Independents (who traditionally vote Republican). They hate Trump and will never vote for him. They voted for Republicans they literally couldn't ID out of a lineup but not Trump, and those down-ballot Republicans weren't running against 78 year-old racists with dementia. These people voted for Republicans who faced better opponents than Biden, yet they didn't vote for the Republican facing off against the weakest Democrat. That's a HORRIBLE look for Trump.

Trump underperformed other Republicans in nearly every single suburban county in 2016 and 2020. DeSantis would be able to bring the overwhelming majority of these 5.5 million voters back into the fold because he doesn't have baggage and gets shite done. There are plenty of suburban voters in FL who voted for him in 2022 who have never voted for Trump and never will vote for him.

I hate to break it to you, but the suburban voters in GA who voted for Kemp and all state-wide Republicans not-named Herschel Walker are never voting for Trump. Suburban voters in AZ who voted for Kimberly Yee but not Lake and Masters are never voting for Trump. The suburban voters in VA who voted for Youngkin but not Trump in 16/20 are not going to vote for Trump in 2024. The suburban voters in WI who voted for Ron Johnson and Congressional/State Legislature Republicans in 2022 but not Tim Michels are never voting for Trump.

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Desantis winning the primary guarantees a dem victory.

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Trump has already lost to Biden. We know that for a fact. So why not give DeSantis a chance?

Trump's only win (2016) was because he was facing the most hated Democrat in history, who was also the 2nd most hated candidate in the history of Presidential polling (Trump was number one), and he needed the help of Jill Stein. Trump won MI, PA, and WI by fewer than 78K combined votes. Jill Stein took over 132K votes away from Hillary in those 3 states. Without Jill Stein's help, Trump loses those states and therefore the election, as he would've been under 270 EV. In 2020, Dems restricted Green Party ballot access in the swing states. Howie Hawkins, the Green Party candidate, was reduced to being a write-in candidate and he received fewer than 15K combined votes in MI, PA, and WI. Dems will once again restrict ballot access in the swing states for Green Party candidates in 2024.

So because Trump won't get the help from a Green Party candidate to play spoiler and because his opponent (Biden) is nowhere near as despised as Hillary was in 2016, he can't win. He needed both of those things in his favor just to barely squeak out a win. When neither of those things were in his favor, like in 2020, he lost and he lost badly. He had over 300 EV's put on him and a 7+ Million PV deficit. The majority of the country dislikes Biden. They think he's a bad President. However, they don't hate him. There's a difference. They HATE Trump, and when push comes to shove, the Independent voters who matter will vote for the guy they dislike over the guy they hate.