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re: Social Security - Help me understand better
Posted on 2/9/23 at 12:08 pm to NC_Tigah
Posted on 2/9/23 at 12:08 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
It is far more sustainable than cost of carry on our non-SS debt in a 5-6% inflationary environment.
Yeah, but that's a pretty low bar. I understand your point, that doesn't suggest any solution.
quote:
Due to demographics, SS will indeed fall out of balance in current dollars over the next few years. It will serve as a deficit "shiny object" while feds otherwise irresponsibly overspend and redistribute our money. There will be pressure, particularly on GenY/GenZ to accept a still lower ROI as Uncle Sam forces them to lend him money in the future.
Pressure? It's inevitable. Unless we just let triggered cuts to retirees kick in, and I don't think that will be allowed to happen.
We are basically looking at increased payroll taxes. Nothing else will much fly politically. Maybe R's can extract a mandatory program as part of it, but they will probably chicken out.
And whatever the solution the sooner the better.
1
Posted on 2/9/23 at 1:34 pm to BigJim
quote:Indeed. But that low bar is a massive 1000% of predicted SS shortfalls.
Yeah, but that's a pretty low bar.
SSTF holdings are currently ~$2.8 trillion. Any shortfalls in annual revenue:expenditure are withdrawn from the trust fund.
In 2034, the SSTF is slated to run out of money. At that point, SS revenue will amount to 80% of SS payouts. That equates to a ~$220 Billion/yr deficit. If unaddressed, the 20% SS deficit would continue in a fairly stable manner for the next 75yrs.
In the meantime, the non-SS budgetary deficit is slated run about $2 trillion in 2034. i.e., UNSUSTAINABLE and 10 times the SS deficit.
Again the fact we are even discussing SS, as opposed to our gargantuan non-SS overspending is demonstrative as to how ridiculous the deficit conversation has become.
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