re: Change my mind: The average American would be better off if Ukraine lost in the next month

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NATO is already at the Russian border

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Putin has addressed that, very effectively BTW. He has spoken repeatedly of NATO flying nuclear bombers within. 12mi of small sections shared NATO-Russian border during NATO War "Games." That requires a Russian response. Expanding the same threat to Russia's entire western border is unacceptable to Russia.

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The NATO expansion threat perceived by Putin

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Your feeder sources are doing you a huge disservice if they've left you under the impression that NATO is only perceived as a threat by Putin. The entirety of Russia's political and military class view NATO as a national security threat, as does the population.