re: Sports betting 1/26

Gonna do a three leg from the sheet and the risk free TNT Thursday on Fanduel. That’s it for today.

I’m gonna cut back on my daily limit a bit, at least until baseball season. The books have cooked the odds on just about everything to the point that you can’t win. Someone tweeted a parlay from last year yesterday that was around +5000, if I remember correctly. A similar parlay this year was only getting a little over +2000. They’ve played the bait and switch game to a tee. Should be illegal.

BilJ - couple questions related to this sheet if you don't mind.

1. win prob% - is this Straight up or with spread?
2. if win prob% is with spread have you noticed / tracked any correlation of this to the blowout spread chance? ie higher win prob% the higher the blowout %? ex southern miss has 54% win prob and 5.8% blowout while abline christ has 51.2% win prob and 6.1% blowout. which stat holds higher value.

something i've started looking at more is team totals specifically games that have larger spread and higher % to the over on game total. ex: stetson is +13.5 with a 55.6% win prob on the game total going over 135.5. chart has stetson scoring 64 DK has line at 59.5. Note as of 2:40 the O/U is 133. similar situation with UTSA. game total on chart is 125.5 with 54.4% for over and utsa scoring 55. DK current line is 123.5 for game and 51.5 for team total. last night chicago st on sheet was 61 book offered at 57.5. they scored 65.