re: Whats the next event that could send the markets back down to the 3500 level or lower??

Bump.

Powell predictably backed off the hawkishness a little without really changing the final target.

Bond market calling his bluff and jumping way ahead of what he actually said.

Markets bouncing.

Dec CPI is going to completely control the market until 1Q earnings in late Jan early feb, which should be terrible.
If it falls down into the 6 range imo, the market will go on a tear until earnings sober them up; specifically services will be the critical part in Dec, it's really the only part of CPI that hasn't shown signs it's about to roll over in MOM. (And if history is any indication, companies will come out in late Dec and early Jan and prewarn on earnings because that's becoming the move to minimize downside so be careful for that.)

Powell is playing this kind of brilliantly. CPI comes in light, he can go dove and say I was prepared to go further but data is guiding us. If CPI comes in higher than expected, he basically just stays on the same course and says "I was telling you guys ALL ALONG". And they managed to not break anything.

If CPI doesn't move, than we are in for a big down leg, but there's really no reason to expect that; just look at MOM numbers which are consistently not changing for months now. It's just simple math after that to get the YOY headline number.


I bought some shortdated TLT calls this morning just to flip for a few % points, seemed obvious to me, should have gone in heavier. I guess he would have said market is smoking crack if I had though. First time I've made money on the TLT trade.

Future gets alot more obscure after 1Q earnings. Mike wilson said yesterday he expects 3000-3300 on SP and he basically started the rally in October by calling a technical bounce. I don't really know what to expect from stocks after Jan, but I'm rather certain 10 yr+ yields have peaked.