re: Is October when the bottom falls out of the market?

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I disagree.

CPI is going to be surrounded by bad news. Q3 earnings being down, GDP being down (again... maybe this time they'll actually call it "a recession"), Unemployment going up (again), Durable Goods being down (again), etc. If MoM CPI is flat, we could see a market bounce but that's about it. If it's up, even another .1, the market takes it hard because that is just one more point to push the Fed to an increase of at least .5.

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I'm torn between being polite vs being direct. If this were a face to face conversation I would smile and nod and let you say your opinions and then change the subject to something you knew more about or something I knew less about. But, given the anonymous message board format, i will just tell you bluntly:

Core m/m CPI. None of that other crap matters in the least. Not one tiny bit. If it comes in at .3 or less, there will be a huge relief rally. This is not an opinion that requires debate. It is a fact.

If we get .3 (probably even .4) or less and no nukes, the Dow will be up 1000s of points from its current position.

*another concern is Credit Suisse, but I don't believe they are collapsing between now and then.

Get that acceptable m/m core in 2 weeks, followed by fed .5 in Nov and Dec, followed by .25 in '23 then pause, and everything's good with the world. Until $120 oil hits again. And it will without another SPR release.