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re: Is everyone about to lose their shirt in this economic fallout?
Posted on 9/23/22 at 3:08 pm to Bard
Posted on 9/23/22 at 3:08 pm to Bard
quote:
From your lips to God's ears, but between now and then we have a lot more pain in store for us (and likely after).
I appreciate that my friends on the left endeavored to pin every bit of negative market news on Trump, but now that my friends on the right are doing the same thing, I have a question:
Is there a current national index in any country in which that index is markedly outperforming ours and that country is exhibiting national economic politics that we should emulate?
Because while I’m by no means an expert on the subject, I’m bouncing around looking at different national indexes, and I’m seeing a lot of graphs that look roughly like ours, or worse.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 6:44 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
Is there a current national index in any country in which that index is markedly outperforming ours and that country is exhibiting national economic politics that we should emulate?
Can you define what you mean by national index?
If you mean something like inflation and GDP, I can put Saudi Arabia up. Their GDP has averaged 2.4% for the year thus far and their inflation is currently at 3%, up .7% from Q1.
The real problem though is trying to gauge by any index is to gauge by symptoms and not looking at who is doing what to fix things. The question shouldn't be "whose index is better" but rather "who is doing things which will end up bringing them out of this problem sooner". (an answer off the top of my head is: the UK - see the new PM's push to bring back offshore drilling, for example).
Much of our problem is the force-feeding of liquidity due to COVID after far too much QE for far too long and mixing that in with expanded welfare benefits, supply issues and an administration hell-bent on ending all use of fossil fuels (there is no worthwhile economy which does not run on a foundation of fossil fuels providing the majority of their energy) before having the technological ability and infrastructure in place to cost-effectively replace it with anything else with comparable utility.
One of the biggest factors Trump relied on for the economic boom we had under his Presidency was supply-siding oil and gas. Cheap oil and gas meant cheaper energy and fuel, which meant cheaper costs to produce and transport, which meant cheaper prices for consumers. His tax package cut taxes across the lower tiers, meaning more people kept more of their money to buy these inexpensive products.
Biden, on the other hand, has done the polar opposite and he knows it. It's why he's been drawing down 1Mbls/day and gone begging to the Venezuelans and Saudis instead of incentivizing more domestic production and exploration. This is also why we're going to see oil prices going back up after the drawdown stops in November.
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