re: Not looking good for MAGA in Alaska

quote:

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While I do agree with this statement and think that bitch will unfortunately win in November….. it could also be a result of it’s a primary that the top 4 advance to general election and a lot of people might not have went out to vote. And some democrats who might have voted will stay home with no real chance for the (D) candidate in November

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Quite the contrary: Far more people have gone out to vote than in any previous year in history in Alaska.

I'll pull the figures from 2018, because the 2020 primary was basically unattended and it was a Presidential election year (vs current off year)


2018:
Primary:
Republicans voting in Primary: 63.4k
Democrats voting in Primary: 36k
Total voted in Primary; 99.4k

General election:
Republican: 145.6
Democrat 125.7
Total voted in general election: 271.3k

For comparison:
2020 General election figures:
Trump: 189,951
Biden: 153,778
Total: 343,729

Compare that to current data:

With 142,055 votes counted @ 60.5% reporting)
Lisa Murkowski 61,503 votes 43.3%
Kelly Tshibaka 58,257 votes 41.0%
Patricia Chesbro 8,810 votes 6.2%


Estimated voting is about 234k, which is massive for a primary. The main difference? Independents, which make up almost 40% of the Alaska registered voters can actually vote in the primaries to determine who represents them.

Closed primary would have fixed this.

This ranked voting thing makes it easier for incumbents than even Louisiana's jungle primary style elections, especially the incumbents who just straddle the fence and play voters for decades, ala John Breaux, Mary Landrieu, etc.

Murkowski will be a U.S. Senator until she's ready to step down with this ranked voting system. Will she be a leftist Democrat's top choice? No. Will she be a conservative Republican's top choice? No.

But in that Top 4 "runoff", she will likely be the #2 choice of both sides.