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Message
re: NCAA Regional Host Candidate Comparison
Posted on 5/26/22 at 4:47 pm to MikeTheTiger71
Posted on 5/26/22 at 4:47 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
The main problem with a Q1 record for LSU is that Ole Miss is Q1 and the other two are not
I just threw those three teams out as examples.
quote:
I‘m open to the idea that some conference wins should be excluded from the comparison. The question is where you draw the line
But now you are explaining exactly what splitting into quads does.
quote:
It’s cherry picking to take that at face value without doing the same for Vandy, Georgia and Florida.
I'm not arguing one case because it helps LSU. I'm just talking overall in general, year in and year out.
The bottom line is that there is no perfect system, that will be without flaws. There are too many teams that play college baseball, so that makes for a serious lack of common opponents. What you are suggesting isn't terrible, but it's just one small piece of the puzzle, not the go-to for determining anything. Same way RPI, SOS and everything else is a piece of the puzzle. You take that, put it all together, and try to come up with the 16 best teams. It has flaws, but there just isn't any ways to make it all make perfect sense.
I enjoy the discussion btw. It's not often you get a back and forth on this board where there isn't one side that totally void of any logic, reasoning. So, I may not agree with you, but at least it's coming from an educated reasoning.
This post was edited on 5/26/22 at 4:50 pm
Posted on 5/26/22 at 6:36 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
But now you are explaining exactly what splitting into quads does.
Understood. The difference is that I’m trying to find a dividing line that more accurately reflects the distribution of teams this season vs an arbitrary static breakpoint. Why is 50 the magic number? I also think regardless of the dividing line, some consideration needs to be given to performance against teams below that cutoff. Oregon, for example, should not be viewed more favorably now that UCLA has dropped to #53 and out of Q1 taking away 3 Q1 losses for Oregon.
Posted on 5/27/22 at 12:29 am to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
I enjoy the discussion btw. It's not often you get a back and forth on this board where there isn't one side that totally void of any logic, reasoning. So, I may not agree with you, but at least it's coming from an educated reasoning.
I have added in a couple of other splits of the data based on your feedback. (Copied below.) I think I found a way to balance performance against Q1 and other games. That’s really where LSU has excelled. They’ve held their own against Q1 and dominated everyone else. A lot of the other contenders have performed well against one group but not the other.
vs RPI Quad 1 (Excluding Midweek):
7) UCLA 10-4 (.714)
8) ND 13-6 (.684)
9) Texas 14-9 (.609)
10) TA&M 13-9 (.591)
11) Lvlle 14-10 (.583)
12) Auburn 12-10 (.545)
13) Okla 11-11 (.500)
13) Virginia 11-11 (.500)
15) Arkansas 11-12 (.478)
16) LSU 12-14 (.462)
17) Okla St 10-12 (.455)
18) Tx Tech 8-10 (.444)
19) TCU 8-11 (.421)
20) Oregon 5-8 (.385)
Other Weekend vs Big 4 (+series lost):
7) LSU 6-1 (.857)
8) Okla St 8-2 (.800)
8) Tx Tech 8-2 (.800)
10) Arkansas 7-2 (.778)
11) TCU 10-3 (.769)
12) Texas 8-4 (.667)
12) Okla 8-4 (.667)
12) Virginia 6-3 (.667)
15) TA&M 9-6 (.600)
16) Oregon 16-11 (.593)
17) UCLA 12-9 (.571)
18) Lvlle 5-5 (.500)
18) Auburn 7-7 (.500)
20) Notre Dame 4-5 (.444)
This next number is a little more difficult to explain/follow. The idea is to give a consistent weight to games vs Q1 vs the games in the other category. The idea is keep teams from padding the WPct with more non-Q1 games. On average, these teams played 63% of games in the above two categories against Q1, so I gave 63% weight to WPct against Q1 and 37% weight to the WPct against the Other category.
Weighted WPct:
7) UCLA (.661)
8) Texas (.630)
9) LSU (.608)
10) ND (.595)
11) TA&M (.594)
12) Arkansas (.589)
13) Okla St (.582)
14) Tx Tech (.576)
15) Okla (.562)
15) Virginia (.562)
17) Lvlle (.552)
18) TCU (.550)
19) Auburn (.529)
20) Oregon (.462)
This post was edited on 5/27/22 at 12:31 am
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