quote:
Lots of people talk about how the 'upcoming' U.S. election could affect the Russia-Ukraine war--and it could. But whoever wins the 2024 U.S. national elections will take office a longer amount of time after today than the start of the Russian invasion was before today. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, 517 days ago. The next presidential inauguration will occur January 20, 2025, 544 days from now. In other words, in the timeline of this war, the next / possibly a new U.S. president taking office is a long way off.

No doubt politicians running for election / reelection behave somewhat differently, on a wide range of issues, than do those recently elected. No doubt politicians not reelected become somewhat 'wild cards' in the two-and-a-half months between the election and the end of their term. No doubt a different president and/or recomposed Congress could act differently toward Ukraine and Russia. But given how much time that is from now, IMOPO we're getting ahead of ourselves giving that so much consideration. IMOPO the media is trying to make this more about the importance of U.S. politics than the situation merits.

I pay little attention to media beyond getting a general flow of narratives.

Like it or not the U.S. has played a key roll in supporting Ukraine in the amount of material provided, though others have taken the lead in breaking several barriers the U.S. did not want to be seen doing first.

Because of this, a continuation or change in its continued support will likely be seen as a bell weather for the rest of NATO - though several European countries are starting to stand on their own more than I expected early on.

While it is very early to make any accurate analysis on what will happen post election or who will even be elected, if the past decade or so is any measure then Ukraine conflict will be politicised to beat each other up over and this is more where my comment was directed.

The political pressure exerted in the lead up to the election could see shifts in support beforehand depending on where public feeling is. Altruism plays a poor second to retaining power more often than not unfortunately.

Edit: Clarity

This post was edited on 7/27/23 at 5:57 am