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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/24/23 at 6:35 am to RLDSC FAN
Posted on 2/24/23 at 6:35 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 24 February 2023
Since 2014 Russia's strategic goal in Ukraine has highly likely been consistent: to control its neighbour. Over 2014-2021, it pursued this objective through subversion, by fomenting an undeclared war in the Donbas, and by annexing Crimea.
On 24 February 2022, Russia pivoted to a new approach and launched a full-scale invasion which attempted to seize the whole country and depose its government. By April 2022, Russia realised this had failed, and focused on expanding and formalising its rule over the Donbas and the south. It has made slow and extremely costly progress.
In recent weeks, Russia has likely changed its approach again. Its campaign now likely primarily seeks to degrade the Ukrainian military, rather than being focused on seizing, substantial new territory. The Russian leadership is likely pursuing a long-term operation where they bank that Russia's advantages in population and resources will eventually exhaust Ukraine.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 24 February 2023
Since 2014 Russia's strategic goal in Ukraine has highly likely been consistent: to control its neighbour. Over 2014-2021, it pursued this objective through subversion, by fomenting an undeclared war in the Donbas, and by annexing Crimea.
On 24 February 2022, Russia pivoted to a new approach and launched a full-scale invasion which attempted to seize the whole country and depose its government. By April 2022, Russia realised this had failed, and focused on expanding and formalising its rule over the Donbas and the south. It has made slow and extremely costly progress.
In recent weeks, Russia has likely changed its approach again. Its campaign now likely primarily seeks to degrade the Ukrainian military, rather than being focused on seizing, substantial new territory. The Russian leadership is likely pursuing a long-term operation where they bank that Russia's advantages in population and resources will eventually exhaust Ukraine.
3
Posted on 2/24/23 at 7:34 am to cypher
quote:
The Russian leadership is likely pursuing a long-term operation where they bank that Russia's advantages in population and resources will eventually exhaust Ukraine.
This is what Stephen Kotkin said on his most recent Hoover Institute interview. It’s turned into a war of attrition. Which makes things more dangerous, in my opinion.
The only way Ukraine can sustain is if we continue to support them and it’s getting to the point where our stocks are going to take a while to replenish. And we don’t have the budget to quickly replenish them given the current debt levels and we blew our wad during Covid.
On the other side, Russia can’t sustain either, which could bring China into the fold. That brings us all closer to an actual war with each other.
Posted on 2/24/23 at 7:49 am to cypher
quote:
In recent weeks, Russia has likely changed its approach again. Its campaign now likely primarily seeks to degrade the Ukrainian military, rather than being focused on seizing, substantial new territory. The Russian leadership is likely pursuing a long-term operation where they bank that Russia's advantages in population and resources will eventually exhaust Ukraine.
This is a reasonable assessment of the evolution of this situation. Perhaps the best way to counter the long term risk is for Ukraine to continue on the path of integration with Europe and NATO. Once Ukraine folds into the European defense and trade pacts, Russia’s window of opportunity closes.
This post was edited on 2/24/23 at 7:50 am
Posted on 2/24/23 at 8:17 am to cypher
quote:
In recent weeks, Russia has likely changed its approach again. Its campaign now likely primarily seeks to degrade the Ukrainian military, rather than being focused on seizing, substantial new territory. The Russian leadership is likely pursuing a long-term operation where they bank that Russia's advantages in population and resources will eventually exhaust Ukraine.
At this point that’s really the only option left for Russia. It’s already been painfully demonstrated to Russia their army is incapable of pulling off a major offensive on a strategic level sufficient enough to force Ukraine to capitulate. All that is left to them is ironically the same strategy the German Empire was taking against France at this exact time in 1916 at a place known as Verdun, namely to “bleed them white”. That’s basically the only card Russia has left to play short of resorting to weapons of mass destruction.
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