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Message
re: Snow Tease for Baton Rouge (Saturday) UPDATE (1/20)
Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:13 am to Duke
Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:13 am to Duke
quote:
You know what wont be in the wintry mix?
Snow.
Not doubting you but how can you be so sure? If I have learned nothing else since that crazy snow event we had in 2008 I have learned that conditions have to be perfect for snow. But also its is near impossible to predict either way. The forecast are almost always wrong. In 2008 they said we would get at best a light dusting of snow if that and I ended up with nearly 9 inches in my yard.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:23 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
Not doubting you but how can you be so sure?
Because after about 2,000 feet or so up, it’s gonna be well above freezing. No time for it to turn into snow but plenty of time to turn into sleet or just simply freeze on contact. It’s an almost identical atmospheric setup as last year.
This post was edited on 1/18/22 at 9:26 am
Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:39 am to Ponchy Tiger
This model sounding corresponds to the picture below it showing freezing rain and sleet. There's a big warm nose which is where the green dew point line that's on top of the red temperature line goes to the right of the red freezing line that I drew. You can't have that and get snow. That warm nose is going to melt anything that wants to freeze and it's going to fall as liquid rain. But it gets very cold at the surface so it will either refreeze as sleet before it lands or it will be cold enough at the surface for the liquid rain to freeze and coat everything with ice once it lands.
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