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re: Snow Tease for Baton Rouge (Saturday) UPDATE (1/20)

Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:13 am to
Posted by Ponchy Tiger
Ponchatoula
Member since Aug 2004
45307 posts
Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:13 am to
quote:

You know what wont be in the wintry mix?

Snow.


Not doubting you but how can you be so sure? If I have learned nothing else since that crazy snow event we had in 2008 I have learned that conditions have to be perfect for snow. But also its is near impossible to predict either way. The forecast are almost always wrong. In 2008 they said we would get at best a light dusting of snow if that and I ended up with nearly 9 inches in my yard.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41877 posts
Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:23 am to
quote:

Not doubting you but how can you be so sure?

Because after about 2,000 feet or so up, it’s gonna be well above freezing. No time for it to turn into snow but plenty of time to turn into sleet or just simply freeze on contact. It’s an almost identical atmospheric setup as last year.
This post was edited on 1/18/22 at 9:26 am
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164582 posts
Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:39 am to
This model sounding corresponds to the picture below it showing freezing rain and sleet. There's a big warm nose which is where the green dew point line that's on top of the red temperature line goes to the right of the red freezing line that I drew. You can't have that and get snow. That warm nose is going to melt anything that wants to freeze and it's going to fall as liquid rain. But it gets very cold at the surface so it will either refreeze as sleet before it lands or it will be cold enough at the surface for the liquid rain to freeze and coat everything with ice once it lands.



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