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New OC Options - Stat Project
Posted on 1/13/11 at 11:39 pm
Posted on 1/13/11 at 11:39 pm
I suggest we review all proposed options for a new OC by evaluating each coordinator based on the percentage of yards and points their teams scored or gained compared to the other teams their opponents played.
So if LSU's opponents normally average allowing 20 PPG and 300 YPG, and Crowton's offense averaged 25 PPG and 450 YardsPerGame, then Crowton's stats would appear as follows:
PPG - 125%
YPG - 150%
Any thoughts? Is this something we can breakout and compare the relative %s?
So if LSU's opponents normally average allowing 20 PPG and 300 YPG, and Crowton's offense averaged 25 PPG and 450 YardsPerGame, then Crowton's stats would appear as follows:
PPG - 125%
YPG - 150%
Any thoughts? Is this something we can breakout and compare the relative %s?
2
Posted on 1/14/11 at 12:15 am to BRTiger2005
email Les, nice idea... 
This post was edited on 1/14/11 at 12:16 am
Posted on 1/14/11 at 12:26 am to halleburton
You don't think those stats would be a good barometer for success?
Posted on 1/15/11 at 6:52 pm to BRTiger2005
Good example using PPG (Fuente vs. other OCs):
Fuente - 157%
Dana Holgerson - 167%
Bryan Harsin - 168%
Kevin Wilson - 147%
David Shaw - 152%
Lincoln Riley - 143%
Fuente - 157%
Dana Holgerson - 167%
Bryan Harsin - 168%
Kevin Wilson - 147%
David Shaw - 152%
Lincoln Riley - 143%
Posted on 1/16/11 at 12:36 am to BRTiger2005
I find this to be a novel idea, but very flawed.
Are we really going to compare PPG differentials in the WAC, MWest, C-USA, etc. to the SEC? That is ludicrous.
Who cares that Boise blew out Wyoming, NM St., San Jose State, Tech, Hawaii, etc.
TCU? While it is a "tougher" schedule, how about the blowouts against Tenn. Tech, Wyoming, New Mexico, and UNLV
ECU? Scoring a collective of 60 points on UNC, and NC St. is about all that impressed me. Most of the other teams were soft on D.
Holgersen? I love the man as an OC, but 65 on Tulsa and Wash St.? 54 on the ULL hot peppers, and 55 on Baylor can skew his results.
Yes, Crowton is horrible, but let's try to see what other OC's are doing in comparable situations.
I mean, the stud of the SEC Gus Malzahn and Cam Newton can only manage 153% PPG, which would be somewhat deficient if we try to measure the SEC with the likes of the WAC.
It also has a strong bias against OC's that happen to play alongside crappy defenses.
Tulsa - Scored 538 points but 136% PPG
I look forward to seeing the statistical wizardry which can come from this twist.
Are we really going to compare PPG differentials in the WAC, MWest, C-USA, etc. to the SEC? That is ludicrous.
Who cares that Boise blew out Wyoming, NM St., San Jose State, Tech, Hawaii, etc.
TCU? While it is a "tougher" schedule, how about the blowouts against Tenn. Tech, Wyoming, New Mexico, and UNLV
ECU? Scoring a collective of 60 points on UNC, and NC St. is about all that impressed me. Most of the other teams were soft on D.
Holgersen? I love the man as an OC, but 65 on Tulsa and Wash St.? 54 on the ULL hot peppers, and 55 on Baylor can skew his results.
Yes, Crowton is horrible, but let's try to see what other OC's are doing in comparable situations.
I mean, the stud of the SEC Gus Malzahn and Cam Newton can only manage 153% PPG, which would be somewhat deficient if we try to measure the SEC with the likes of the WAC.
It also has a strong bias against OC's that happen to play alongside crappy defenses.
Tulsa - Scored 538 points but 136% PPG
I look forward to seeing the statistical wizardry which can come from this twist.
Posted on 1/16/11 at 11:11 am to BRTiger2005
I admire your desire to take on a project like this...why don't narrow it to against ranked teams?
Posted on 1/16/11 at 10:15 pm to sgent3125
Just to be clear, the listing i posted with Holgerson, Wilson, etc. were some of the top OCs in the nation. They were also some of the top scorers using this metric.
And when you consider the nature of the stats i'm proposing all of those #s were really really good. A rating of 100% indicated you're doing on average what everyone else in America has done to that opponent(s).
I also don't think it's a coincidence that most of those OCs were highly sought after and are either at new OC positions or HC positions.
And when you consider the nature of the stats i'm proposing all of those #s were really really good. A rating of 100% indicated you're doing on average what everyone else in America has done to that opponent(s).
I also don't think it's a coincidence that most of those OCs were highly sought after and are either at new OC positions or HC positions.
Posted on 1/16/11 at 10:16 pm to BRTiger2005
For another basis of comparison,
Kurt Roper has the following stats:
PPG - 103%
YPG - 100%
Based on that data, I would advise against hiring Roper, as he appears to be merely hitting the expected standard on average. In addition, in 6 of 11 games analyzed (Elon game excluded) Roper missed the expected result (below the average).
Kurt Roper has the following stats:
PPG - 103%
YPG - 100%
Based on that data, I would advise against hiring Roper, as he appears to be merely hitting the expected standard on average. In addition, in 6 of 11 games analyzed (Elon game excluded) Roper missed the expected result (below the average).
This post was edited on 1/16/11 at 11:02 pm
Posted on 1/16/11 at 11:12 pm to BRTiger2005
For yet another basis of comparison,
Doug Nussmeirer has the following stats:
PPG - 94%
YPG - 101%
Doug Nussmeirer has the following stats:
PPG - 94%
YPG - 101%
Posted on 1/16/11 at 11:13 pm to BRTiger2005
The last basis of comparison,
Paul Chryst has the following stats:
PPG - 151%
YPG - 117%
Paul Chryst has the following stats:
PPG - 151%
YPG - 117%
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