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How BCS programs have fared since firing their coaches.
Posted on 11/14/08 at 10:06 am
Posted on 11/14/08 at 10:06 am
Bored at work and just did the exercise of looking at the coaching firings at BCS schools over the 2004 -2005 seasons to see how schools have done with their new coach (going with the assumption that 4-5 years is enough of a body of work to declare a new coach a success). Here's what I found:
1) On average, programs that have fired coaches from BCS programs have lost 1 more game a year than their predecessors.
2) Some of these firings are justified (e.g., teams averaging less than 6 wins / year - see Indiana, Duke, Washington, Mississipi State, Stanford, Arizona). Of those programs the new coach has basically maintained the status quo, with only Indiana and Arizona winning 1 or more game per year with their new coach.
3) Teams that had more than 6 wins a year that fired their coaches on average lost between 2-3 more games than their predecessors with NONE of them really winning more games on average than their predecessors - This includes teams such as:
- Ole Miss
- Notre Dame
- Syracuse (the big winner losing an average of more than 5 games a season with their new coach vs. their old coach).
- Cincinnati
- Nebraska
So the key questions I pose to the rantards is this:
- Can Tennessee and Clemson fans stomach paying a coach more than they paid fulmer and bowden and endure 4 years of 5 win seasons.
- If Tommy Tuberville gets the axe will they find someone that can eek out more than 6/7 wins a year with Saban hanging around Bama.
1) On average, programs that have fired coaches from BCS programs have lost 1 more game a year than their predecessors.
2) Some of these firings are justified (e.g., teams averaging less than 6 wins / year - see Indiana, Duke, Washington, Mississipi State, Stanford, Arizona). Of those programs the new coach has basically maintained the status quo, with only Indiana and Arizona winning 1 or more game per year with their new coach.
3) Teams that had more than 6 wins a year that fired their coaches on average lost between 2-3 more games than their predecessors with NONE of them really winning more games on average than their predecessors - This includes teams such as:
- Ole Miss
- Notre Dame
- Syracuse (the big winner losing an average of more than 5 games a season with their new coach vs. their old coach).
- Cincinnati
- Nebraska
So the key questions I pose to the rantards is this:
- Can Tennessee and Clemson fans stomach paying a coach more than they paid fulmer and bowden and endure 4 years of 5 win seasons.
- If Tommy Tuberville gets the axe will they find someone that can eek out more than 6/7 wins a year with Saban hanging around Bama.
5
Posted on 11/14/08 at 10:22 am to ironsides
I don't know but Coker screwed up Miami's program after winning a national title and I'm starting to like the resurgences I'm seeing from Randy Shannon.
Posted on 11/14/08 at 2:49 pm to ironsides
It's all about getting the right coach. Cincy is doing alright, Nebraska is in the mess they are in because they fired a pretty good coach in Solich and hired a disaster but will probably get back on track with Bo Pelini, Syracuse is a mess and Ole Miss is winning more under Nutt. They made the same mistake as Nebraska, firing a coach who did pretty well and had one crappy season and then hiring a disaster.
Clemson and Tennessee are both justified in their decisions. The Vols have been trending steadily downward since 1998 with brief flashes of being good (2001, 2004), and are suffering through their second losing season in 4 years. Clemson, in spite of their tremendous talent, has not so much as sniffed an ACC title in 17 years.
Will we suffer for a while? Maybe. It depends on the type of hire we get. But you have to be willing to take a punch in the mouth to get back on the right track.
Clemson and Tennessee are both justified in their decisions. The Vols have been trending steadily downward since 1998 with brief flashes of being good (2001, 2004), and are suffering through their second losing season in 4 years. Clemson, in spite of their tremendous talent, has not so much as sniffed an ACC title in 17 years.
Will we suffer for a while? Maybe. It depends on the type of hire we get. But you have to be willing to take a punch in the mouth to get back on the right track.
Posted on 11/16/08 at 9:27 am to GoBigOrange86
quote:
It's all about getting the right coach.
While this is true, how do you know who the right coach is? Change for the sake of change does not mean you will be successful, and in most cases the change hasn't worked out. While Fulmer and Bowden were performing poorly this year, who are they going to get that is better? Lane Kiffin has only been successful as a co-OC in a conference that has weak defenses. Does that really qualify you to run a big college program? See Ed Orgeron.
Sometimes when you take a punch in the mouth all you get is a broken jaw.
The point is, these schools all have mid-season firings with ZERO backup plans.
Posted on 11/16/08 at 11:55 am to ironsides
Mississippi made a mistake in firing David Cutcliffe because of one bad season. Most freely acknowledge that. I suspect alot of Nebraska fans feel they made a mistake in firing Frank Solich for one bad season.
This isn't change for the sake of change. This is our second losing season in four years. I'm not trying to sound like a smug Bama fan, but we're Tennessee. That doesn't happen often. We've been ten years without an SEC title. We've been blown out by our two biggest rivals two years in a row.
Time and again we have gotten our hopes up and time and again they have been dashed. We all thought 2002 was going to be our year, our chance to capitalize off of 2001. We were ranked preseason number 4 and proceeded to lose every major game and get blown out by Maryland in the Peach Bowl.
In 2005 we were the preseason number 3, I believe number 1 in some polls, and all the talk from Fulmer was about the Rose Bowl. We lost to Vandy for the first time since the 1980s, lost to our three major rivals, and missed a bowl game.
Then this year we were all confident and hopeful. We had a quarterback who'd been itching to play for three years, a new OC, and a much improved defense, and we've lost seven games.
We're staring 3-9 in the face. Don't tell me that if Miles went 5-6 and then three years later went 3-9 you wouldn't want him gone.
The "Who are you gonna get?" argument is tired. You hired someone from Oklahoma State who never lost fewer than four games, I think. Florida hired a guy from Utah. Georgia hired an offensive coordinator from FSU. Oklahoma hired a defensive coordinator from UF.
Sometimes it works out, but sometimes it doesn't. We may wander in the woods like Alabama or may come out for the better like Georgia. But I remember when I was in the Knoxville airport a couple of months ago when I went home for the UF game, my dad jokingly said something to the effect of "Are you going to beat us real bad?" to a Florida fan (there had been lots of them on my flight). His response was "As long as you guys keep Phil around."
That was the perception of our coach from one of our biggest rivals. And maybe it's not all Phil's fault. Maybe he just hired an awful offensive coordinator. But the buck does stop with him. I have a lot of respect for Fulmer and for what he did for my alma mater, but this is NOT change for the sake of change. This has been building for most of this decade.
This isn't change for the sake of change. This is our second losing season in four years. I'm not trying to sound like a smug Bama fan, but we're Tennessee. That doesn't happen often. We've been ten years without an SEC title. We've been blown out by our two biggest rivals two years in a row.
Time and again we have gotten our hopes up and time and again they have been dashed. We all thought 2002 was going to be our year, our chance to capitalize off of 2001. We were ranked preseason number 4 and proceeded to lose every major game and get blown out by Maryland in the Peach Bowl.
In 2005 we were the preseason number 3, I believe number 1 in some polls, and all the talk from Fulmer was about the Rose Bowl. We lost to Vandy for the first time since the 1980s, lost to our three major rivals, and missed a bowl game.
Then this year we were all confident and hopeful. We had a quarterback who'd been itching to play for three years, a new OC, and a much improved defense, and we've lost seven games.
We're staring 3-9 in the face. Don't tell me that if Miles went 5-6 and then three years later went 3-9 you wouldn't want him gone.
The "Who are you gonna get?" argument is tired. You hired someone from Oklahoma State who never lost fewer than four games, I think. Florida hired a guy from Utah. Georgia hired an offensive coordinator from FSU. Oklahoma hired a defensive coordinator from UF.
Sometimes it works out, but sometimes it doesn't. We may wander in the woods like Alabama or may come out for the better like Georgia. But I remember when I was in the Knoxville airport a couple of months ago when I went home for the UF game, my dad jokingly said something to the effect of "Are you going to beat us real bad?" to a Florida fan (there had been lots of them on my flight). His response was "As long as you guys keep Phil around."
That was the perception of our coach from one of our biggest rivals. And maybe it's not all Phil's fault. Maybe he just hired an awful offensive coordinator. But the buck does stop with him. I have a lot of respect for Fulmer and for what he did for my alma mater, but this is NOT change for the sake of change. This has been building for most of this decade.
This post was edited on 11/16/08 at 11:56 am
Posted on 11/16/08 at 1:30 pm to GoBigOrange86
Your aware Tennessee was in the SEC champ game last year?
Posted on 11/16/08 at 2:04 pm to Checkmateking2
Wow, really?
We lost. Again. Just like the other two times we've been and not won since our last title of any meaning.
We lost. Again. Just like the other two times we've been and not won since our last title of any meaning.
This post was edited on 11/16/08 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 11/16/08 at 6:16 pm to ironsides
Florida made out ok. So did Bama, apparently.
Posted on 11/16/08 at 6:27 pm to ironsides
Florida made out ok. So did Bama, apparently.
Posted on 11/17/08 at 11:11 am to Tigah in the ATL
quote:
Florida made out ok. So did Bama, apparently.
Michigan is doing awesome too
Before I get any crap over "rodriguez is installing his system, doesn't have his players" you can't tell me that Akron and Northwestern recruited better players over the past 4 years.
So you are comparing Bama was coming off of probation, and both Florida and Bama had fired coaches with no HC experience while Tennessee fired a guy that brought them to the NC and won and multiple SEC championship games. The analysis performed was based off of firings from 4 years ago which is enough of a body of work to work off of.
While it seems that Alabama and Florida are on the right track, it's basically a roll of the dice. Change for the sake of change - it's completely obvious that Tennessee does not have a back up plan. There just don't seem very many good and available coaches that would want to leave their current position to head to Clemson and Tennessee. Just my opinion, but we'll see.
Posted on 11/17/08 at 11:28 am to GoBigOrange86
quote:
We may wander in the woods like Alabama
thats a pretty good assessment, i have to admit
Posted on 11/17/08 at 11:40 am to GoBigOrange86
quote:
Mississippi made a mistake in firing David Cutcliffe because of one bad season. Most freely acknowledge that
I'm not sure why so many folk have this mentality.
Cut wasn't recruiting very well. He was told to fire his coordinators or lose his job. He chose to not fire them and you see what happened. There was no real reason to think OM would have rebounded.
The mistake they made was hiring Orgeron.
Posted on 11/17/08 at 5:22 pm to Rocket
Solich didn't even have one bad season. They fired him after a 9-3 season. Now they would kill for 9-3.
Posted on 11/17/08 at 7:45 pm to TigerMyth36
Well 2002 was bad, when they went 7-7.
Posted on 11/17/08 at 10:12 pm to ironsides
Oddly enough you left out Florida and Alabama.
Ole Miss was correct to get rid of Cutcliffe... Rocket is correct when he says that nothing was going to improve.
Also, if Solich was so great, why hasn't he got another job in a BCS conference? Nebraska's program was in pretty rapid decline under him.
Ole Miss was correct to get rid of Cutcliffe... Rocket is correct when he says that nothing was going to improve.
Also, if Solich was so great, why hasn't he got another job in a BCS conference? Nebraska's program was in pretty rapid decline under him.
Posted on 11/18/08 at 6:15 am to Carlos
Yes, read the original post, Alabama and Florida didn't fire their coaches in 2004-2005 did they?
Florida and Alabama have not had a full 4 years underneath their new coaching staffs. What I wanted to do is look at schools where there has been a full 4 years for a coaching staff to prove it's ability to coach and recruit it's own players.
Obviously it looks like it is going to work out, although it is hard to really compare Saban with Bambi since he doesn't have to deal with the whole probation thing. That being said, if Saban were to lose to Auburn AND Florida, his first 2 seasons would basically be the same as Shula's last 2 seasons. (10-2, 6-6).
Solich ruined his chance when he was caught with multiple DUI's at Ohio University FWIW.
Florida and Alabama have not had a full 4 years underneath their new coaching staffs. What I wanted to do is look at schools where there has been a full 4 years for a coaching staff to prove it's ability to coach and recruit it's own players.
Obviously it looks like it is going to work out, although it is hard to really compare Saban with Bambi since he doesn't have to deal with the whole probation thing. That being said, if Saban were to lose to Auburn AND Florida, his first 2 seasons would basically be the same as Shula's last 2 seasons. (10-2, 6-6).
Solich ruined his chance when he was caught with multiple DUI's at Ohio University FWIW.
Posted on 11/18/08 at 7:19 am to ironsides
quote:
Florida and Alabama have not had a full 4 years underneath their new coaching staffs.
yeah since meyer's 4th year isn't 100% over we can't evaluate 2008 UF just yet
Posted on 11/18/08 at 8:56 am to dociletiger
quote:
don't know but Coker screwed up Miami's program after winning a national title and I'm starting to like the resurgences I'm seeing from Randy Shannon.
Coker got a fair chance, and he ran the program into the gournd. It was time for him to go.
Posted on 11/18/08 at 9:52 am to Bad Cat
quote:
Coker got a fair chance, and he ran the program into the gournd. It was time for him to go.
CLUELESS
HE WAS A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP-LEVEL COACH
Posted on 11/18/08 at 3:24 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
yeah since meyer's 4th year isn't 100% over we can't evaluate 2008 UF just yet
Ok so did the quick math. Urban Meyer gets you an average of 2 wins more per year.
Still that makes him the only hire to average more wins per year than his predecessor (still statistically to early for Saban, and we all know there is going to be a decline after JPW leaves).
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