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re: EBC Book #2 - Applied Economics by Thomas Sowell
Posted on 7/4/17 at 10:01 am to Willie Stroker
Posted on 7/4/17 at 10:01 am to Willie Stroker
quote:
For me, his remarks merely affirm what the primary driving factor of medical costs in the US are - socializing the payments through private insurers who pass the cost along to consumers. The dominant "solution" seems to shift the concept of "single payer" (which should be the consumer) to the one that writes the checks, paid by compulsory payments and price fixing without regard to the effects on supply.
I couldn't agree more here. I often struggle with the morality part of healthcare like he describes in his tv anecdotes like the "crying grandmother" or "hospitalized child", but Sowell's ability to take the moral issue out of the equation makes the reality of the economics so clear.
Another piece I found interesting that I have some personal experience with is incentives and regulation of drug discovery, manufacturing, regulatory clearance, and pricing. Obviously a very complex issue. One of the companies I used to work for primarily invested in pharma drugs, some of which were going through Stage 1/2 of drug development (smaller sample sizes, proof of concept essentially). We invested between $2-$5M that we thought had life changing consequences including one drug whose results eradicated Stage 4 cancer in 70% of trial patients and had people out of the hospital that were given 3 months to live. Since this was stage 1, the purpose of the trial was to test for side effects of the drug since it was a drug taken in conjunction with chemo. Obviously the team was excited, filed to go public, and raised a ton of money for Stage 2 which is to test the efficacy on a larger sample size.
The problem here is exactly as Sowell describes when it comes to the cost/benefit of lives that aren't saved by testing drugs that potentially could save a life vs going through the full FDA process which could take years to finish. Currently, the Stage 2 trial is way over subscribed, so the company it being extremely selective in who will test for efficacy. So we let people invest their cash in companies who potentially have a life saving drug since the company has IPO'd, but we won't let them invest their most valuable asset (life) in that same company due to regulatory restrictions? I understand why the company doesn't include everyone as they want to maximize their chances for a positive result and not skew sample based on race, gender, etc, but is there not a better way to allow consumers to make this decision themselves that wouldn't skew the results of the company's study?
This post was edited on 7/4/17 at 10:06 am
Posted on 7/4/17 at 12:05 pm to Willie Stroker
This post somehow slipped by me. Very good points, particularly regarding the negative impacts minimum wage hikes will have on those we will most need in the future.
Posted on 7/7/17 at 7:22 am to Cap Crunch
quote:
Cap Crunch
Reaching out to you and others that joined the discussion.
Any discussion worthy realizations, disagreements, and other thoughts?
Applying economics to healthcare generated some discussion. What about housing policies/regulations discussed in chapter 4?
Posted on 7/7/17 at 9:33 am to Willie Stroker
I'm 38% through. Going to hit the next ~20% (including housing) next week. Looking forward to that discussion.
Posted on 7/7/17 at 9:32 pm to Willie Stroker
Sowell is one of my inspirations. He is right all the time. But the healthcare antitrust exemption is prime driver of cost. Yet I repeat myself, govt intervention has massive unintended consequences.
Posted on 7/10/17 at 3:17 pm to Fatal Conceit
On the topic of subsidies, here is a textbook example of why they are dangerous. Ideally, if the market wanted to account for the possibility of coal shutdowns causing widespread blackouts, it would have been baked into the cost of wind energy and the coal plants would have continued operating. Instead, the Australian government has effectively set an artificial price cap on wind energy, thus making coal non-competitive. Sounds great, right? Well, yes, until the wind stops blowing and you now have no firm baseload capacity to fall back on, leading to weeks-long power outages for over 400,000 homes and many major industrials. I wonder what the cost of wind power becomes when you compensate for all that lost productivity?
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 7/10/17 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 7/10/17 at 3:20 pm to RedStickBR
As an aside, how is everyone doing with Sowell? What does everyone want to read next?
Posted on 7/10/17 at 10:49 pm to RedStickBR
I'm at the halfway point.
I'll be up for reading something near the opposite end of the economic spectrum next, though no suggestions come to mind.
I'll be up for reading something near the opposite end of the economic spectrum next, though no suggestions come to mind.
Posted on 7/13/17 at 5:57 am to Willie Stroker
The opening part on the economics of housing and how it is the largest investment most people have reminds me of something. My current house, which I and more importantly the wife both agree is nice for our stage in life, cost less than 4x my standalone salary when we bought it and is less than 3x my current salary. My wife also has a salary that I'm not including here.
There was a point in time when we were seriously considering a move to London and were looking at real estate prices. Even in the suburbs, people were shelling out 10x-20x their salary on primary home real estate. I'm curious if these people ever pay off their homes or if they rely on the greater fool theory in the hope someone would buy it for an inflated price if they ever wanted to sell. Sure, when you're paying 10x-20x your income and home prices rise you can see a massive gain relative to your income, but if you lose your job you are almost definitely going bankrupt. That's a risk I'd have trouble getting comfortable with. Unfortunately, the other option is to rent and the average renter in London spends 50% of their income on rent. That's also an absurd proposition by my American standards, but who knows what people are thinking on that side of the pond.
There was a point in time when we were seriously considering a move to London and were looking at real estate prices. Even in the suburbs, people were shelling out 10x-20x their salary on primary home real estate. I'm curious if these people ever pay off their homes or if they rely on the greater fool theory in the hope someone would buy it for an inflated price if they ever wanted to sell. Sure, when you're paying 10x-20x your income and home prices rise you can see a massive gain relative to your income, but if you lose your job you are almost definitely going bankrupt. That's a risk I'd have trouble getting comfortable with. Unfortunately, the other option is to rent and the average renter in London spends 50% of their income on rent. That's also an absurd proposition by my American standards, but who knows what people are thinking on that side of the pond.
Posted on 7/15/17 at 12:42 pm to RedStickBR
This discussion around San Francisco and how land use restrictions and zoning works to push the less affluent further and further away from the city center is fascinating. Frankly, I think that's why so many European cities like Paris and London are so safe relative to U.S. cities. They've preserved their city centers and those more prone to commit crimes (statistically correlated with income level) no longer live anywhere near the parts of the cities tourists come to visit. San Francisco would be one example of this in the U.S., although it's much less common here. New Orleans is an example where even areas close to the city center are stil crime laden. While Sowell is talking about the negative impacts to honest and law-abiding citizens who aren't affluent enough to afford living in the heart of the city, you have to wonder if there's a benefit in the form of less crime in the city centers.
Posted on 7/21/17 at 10:38 pm to RedStickBR
This Economics of Discrimination section is frankly fascinating. I'd never thought of discrimination in terms of supply and demand before, but where costs are low, it would make sense "demand for" discrimination would be higher. As such, we are incentivized to make it cost as much as possible.
That being said, I think Sowell would agree what we are talking about here is actual discrimination, not alleged discrimination or falsified discrimination, but actual unfettered discrimination as defined in the book.
Further, if we can think of discrimination itself in terms of supply and demand, we should also be able to think of accusations of discrimination in terms of supply and demand. Sure, every actual case of discrimination should be identified as such. But "crying wolf" too frequently will lead to the commoditization of the accusation to the point that it loses its value as people simply stop caring. Part of establishing "high costs" for discrimination is reserving the accusation thereof for instances where it has actually occurred.
ETA: Sowell also did a bang-up job differentiating between prejudice, bias and discrimination.
That being said, I think Sowell would agree what we are talking about here is actual discrimination, not alleged discrimination or falsified discrimination, but actual unfettered discrimination as defined in the book.
Further, if we can think of discrimination itself in terms of supply and demand, we should also be able to think of accusations of discrimination in terms of supply and demand. Sure, every actual case of discrimination should be identified as such. But "crying wolf" too frequently will lead to the commoditization of the accusation to the point that it loses its value as people simply stop caring. Part of establishing "high costs" for discrimination is reserving the accusation thereof for instances where it has actually occurred.
ETA: Sowell also did a bang-up job differentiating between prejudice, bias and discrimination.
Posted on 7/30/17 at 8:18 pm to RedStickBR
Just finished the book and found it fascinating. While some of the early sections sounded like EIOL all over again, Sowell blew me away when he took us on an economics "scenic route," covering topics like discrimination, climate, geography and water transport. This book taught me that the economics principles EIOL applied to more standard economics issues can also be applied to things we don't tend to relate to the study of economics.
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