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re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 8/27/14 at 3:43 pm to TheBigHurt
Posted on 8/27/14 at 3:43 pm to TheBigHurt
I'm not Force, but they're projecting between 76 & 80.
Posted on 8/27/14 at 3:47 pm to Iowa Golfer
Is that what the gubmint leakage says???
Posted on 8/27/14 at 3:51 pm to LSURussian
Interesting... With cool weather ahead should injections ramp up again in the coming weeks?
Posted on 8/27/14 at 9:52 pm to TheBigHurt
Still long..........this August bump is a common theme............Once first cool front hits early sept it ramps up again..........
I'm long till Late Sept early Oct...........then I reverse the play.
And my guy says 77............
I'm long till Late Sept early Oct...........then I reverse the play.
And my guy says 77............
Posted on 8/28/14 at 7:33 am to L S Usetheforce
Refresh my memory. You're long what? and 77 what?
Sorry, too lazy to go back through this.
Sorry, too lazy to go back through this.
Posted on 8/28/14 at 9:28 am to Iowa Golfer
just not hopping in this thread.. are we still talking about BOIL? or what are we talking about? I was long on XLE till yesterday.. picked a good day to get out.
Posted on 8/28/14 at 9:34 am to b-rab2
I'm in DGAZ still. Injection of 75 Bcf this week.
Posted on 8/28/14 at 9:38 am to TheBigHurt
Im still long kold..... 77 was my guys injection estimate....it was 75 today.....im confident this little bump is temporary as injection season is progressing nicely in accordance with eia longterm outlook of 3447....
Historically as I've followed natural gas..... July/August always brings a getting bump.
Historically as I've followed natural gas..... July/August always brings a getting bump.
Posted on 8/28/14 at 9:40 am to b-rab2
Replace BOIL with "natural gas"
Posted on 9/2/14 at 7:19 pm to b-rab2
Decent opportunity to exit your shorts today if you wanted to.
I'm reading $4.20 gas this winter, and that's based on another hard winter. Wider variations based on geography though. Someone finally has that figured out.
It really amazes me that to a large degree a lot of guys in this thread have their head around supply demand fundamentals and pricing better than the so called experts.
I went through the government's reports leading up to last winter and through last winter. They're just like the analysts, late to the party. Almost like college football rankings before October. They're always looking backwards.
I suppose it helps that some of you talk to guys at Henry Hub.
I appreciate everyone's insight.
On a macro level, and based on what I think could be deflationary statistics coming out, I'm searching for alternative investments. Outside of long term plays in gold and silver, the commodities market has really under performed. I'm guessing that can't last given what I think I'm seeing and general global unrest.
I've made more money this year in coffee, feeder cattle, live cattle and natural gas than any other place. The coffee bull trade was based on a chart, and historic lows. Feeder cattle and live cattle trades are seasonal, and I have a decent idea what beef producers are saying given where I live. The natural gas I've always dabbled in on a seasonal basis, but I learned so much on here it is now a full time endeavor.
If I look back over all the years I've been both conservative and occasionally tried to hit home runs, one theme always emerges on my successes. I've made money on the half dozen sectors I understand. You can even see that in my trading account. It's all based on industries I somewhat understand. I probably miss a ton of opportunity, and I do have broad market exposure in my tax favored accounts, but I've found I'm really a pretty simple guy who isn't that smart, and best to stick to what I know.
I'm reading $4.20 gas this winter, and that's based on another hard winter. Wider variations based on geography though. Someone finally has that figured out.
It really amazes me that to a large degree a lot of guys in this thread have their head around supply demand fundamentals and pricing better than the so called experts.
I went through the government's reports leading up to last winter and through last winter. They're just like the analysts, late to the party. Almost like college football rankings before October. They're always looking backwards.
I suppose it helps that some of you talk to guys at Henry Hub.
I appreciate everyone's insight.
On a macro level, and based on what I think could be deflationary statistics coming out, I'm searching for alternative investments. Outside of long term plays in gold and silver, the commodities market has really under performed. I'm guessing that can't last given what I think I'm seeing and general global unrest.
I've made more money this year in coffee, feeder cattle, live cattle and natural gas than any other place. The coffee bull trade was based on a chart, and historic lows. Feeder cattle and live cattle trades are seasonal, and I have a decent idea what beef producers are saying given where I live. The natural gas I've always dabbled in on a seasonal basis, but I learned so much on here it is now a full time endeavor.
If I look back over all the years I've been both conservative and occasionally tried to hit home runs, one theme always emerges on my successes. I've made money on the half dozen sectors I understand. You can even see that in my trading account. It's all based on industries I somewhat understand. I probably miss a ton of opportunity, and I do have broad market exposure in my tax favored accounts, but I've found I'm really a pretty simple guy who isn't that smart, and best to stick to what I know.
Posted on 9/2/14 at 10:46 pm to Iowa Golfer
I'm telling you now it's gonna be waayyyyy higher than 4.20, this summer has proven our capabilities to inject more so than any other time....
However, we won't reach our normal levels....this is a just a fact so if we get a winter comparable to last, which looks quite legit, then we could see our storage dwindle to 500 or even worse 0.
I expect natural gas to hit 6.50 this winter an avg around 4.75.
Right now though, I will short until end of sept early October as we meet eia projections for the summer price will settle.
I'm still shooting for a kold price of 56-57.
However, we won't reach our normal levels....this is a just a fact so if we get a winter comparable to last, which looks quite legit, then we could see our storage dwindle to 500 or even worse 0.
I expect natural gas to hit 6.50 this winter an avg around 4.75.
Right now though, I will short until end of sept early October as we meet eia projections for the summer price will settle.
I'm still shooting for a kold price of 56-57.
This post was edited on 9/2/14 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 9/3/14 at 7:55 am to L S Usetheforce
Still planning on buying boil below 32?
Posted on 9/3/14 at 9:55 am to eng08
I think I'm going long today on UGAZ. This dip is too tempting.
This post was edited on 9/3/14 at 9:58 am
Posted on 9/3/14 at 10:13 am to eng08
Yes in fact I may sell 1000 shares of kold today if boil hits 32.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 9:51 am to Iowa Golfer
I jumped in UGAZ on this plunge.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 9:53 am to rintintin
yeah..welcome to hell
I'm already down 40% and triple downed at 14 before the release....thought the 14-15 level was SOLID support and we'd bounce back. I'd get at least some back..but NOOOO, drops 4%...I really hate all the 'BOIL' guys in this thread making money on nat gas
ETA: maybe I need to double down on my tripled down position and to get back to even
I'm already down 40% and triple downed at 14 before the release....thought the 14-15 level was SOLID support and we'd bounce back. I'd get at least some back..but NOOOO, drops 4%...I really hate all the 'BOIL' guys in this thread making money on nat gas
ETA: maybe I need to double down on my tripled down position and to get back to even
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 9:54 am
Posted on 9/4/14 at 9:57 am to Ole War Skule
I told yall to wait just sold 2000 shares of kold @ 54.06 and bought 1000 of ugaz @ 13.46
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