re: BOIL has become predictable

Nice, what kind if timeframe and roi we looking at?

I'm pretty sure most everyone in this thread has made money. It seems Ole War Skule was a contrarian to the consensus in this thread (but actually in line w many analysts), and may have made the wrong bet. Many here were correct in shorting NG.

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It seems Ole War Skule was a contrarian to the consensus in this thread (but actually in line w many analysts), and may have made the wrong bet.

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OK, has everyone now had their turn in rubbing the salt?

Yes. I bet against the collective wisdom of MT, bought UGAZ in June and am, for the time being, a little under water. It appears everyone else on this thread are those whom I bought my UGAZ from. Now it seems they're all wanting to buy it back, well, I'm not selling and am already up 3.3% from my low!

we'll see how this turn out in the end

I'll probably buy calls on UNG. Golfer is buying options on the actual future.

I think Skule will be fine at $17 also. I'm not rubbing anything in either. No one likes their team to lose football games, and no one likes to lose money either.

The $17 average cost in is slightly high. If you want to feel better, go back through here and see what my initial price in was on my UNG short. It dropped I'm guessing 80%, and I had to average all the way down. And I mean all the way. Some of these calls were trading at below .10 at their darkest point. I had paid as high as about $2 if I remember correctly for my first entry point.

BOIL, and natural gas might be predictable (on a macro level) but there is nothing easy about taking positions contrary to the market, especially when the market and fundamentals are extremely disconnected. You have to dig deep, show discipline and have faith that logic and supply/demand eventually make it in to the pricing.

I was set to lose a bunch. My trade became profitable one day before expiration. Close call.

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I'm not rubbing anything in either.No one likes their team to lose football games, and no one likes to lose money either.

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all in fun, good-natured ribbing is part of football and 'speculating' as far as I'm concerned

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It dropped I'm guessing 80%, and I had to average all the way down. And I mean all the way.

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you've gott bigger brass than I, or are even more stubborn

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I was set to lose a bunch. My trade became profitable one day before expiration. Close call.

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What a ride! Thankfully, as I'm long the ETN and don't have to worry about an expiration. I can hold this losing position forever.

I'll hang in there for a while and see what happens. I'm rethinking my trailing % stop.

I have been short for some time now. Mainly in DGAZ (Was in KOLD originally following force's lead.) Back in June I went in heavy bringing my cost down to around 3.10. It was certainly a fun summer. I plan to exit at the end of Sept/early Oct. sticking to Force's recommendation then i'll jump in UGAZ for winter.

I wish I asked this over the weekend reading this thread but better now than never.... Are you guys thinking holding Ugaz through the winter around 14-15$ is an easy layup?

Appreciate your input and enjoy your posts. The last couple of pages that seemed to be the consensus....it's that time and cold weather is coming. ....gotta start following this thread.

I'll start bleeding off my position in DGAZ here shortly and transfer to UGAZ. Won't there be some legit injections in the coming weeks w cooler weather?