re: BOIL has become predictable

Feb 40/48 bear put spread on KOLD.

"What are you long in, and what is your average price?"

I've had UGAZ at 25.15 since 6/20/14, down 45%, lost so much now, I was just going to hold till spring and hope for the winter prices to bail me out.

I tripled my position yesterday at 14 hoping for a short term pop to get some of my losses back.

I know supplies have increased dramatically in last few years, but UGAZ seemed to have a pretty solid bottom around 14. I guessed everyone was selling to that support prior to the release this morning, and after the no-news release, it would pop for an 'easy' 10-20%.

WRONG

I've got a trailing % stop on the new shares and will hold the old ones till I get even or lose it all

ETA: My avg cost on all shares is now 17.34.

I generally have zero faith in chartists or technical analysis, but this seems a pretty solid bottom

What's looking cheap?

IF HH is at $3.95 today, that's actually up a penny from yesterday's cash close.

I bought back my $5 jan/feb calls, and went out long further. Probably not the bottom, but based on iv I'm longer than before this morning.

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this whole thread stated the exact opposite though.

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thanks for rubbing it in...I read much of the thread as well as the opposite opinion from other sources...I wrongly decided that commodity supply and price projections would be more reliable from established professional sources than an LSU sports message board

I assumed that the horrible logic and advise I wallow through on OT and Rant somehow had relevance to the level of expertise on the MT board....big mistake

Still trying to decide on this

I did some excel estimating for the spring summer and would have made money on those trades. Now I am trying to figure out what's a good plan for the fall/winter.

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...I wrongly decided that commodity supply and price projections would be more reliable from established professional sources than an LSU sports message board

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Terrible idea.......actually though, on that point since money talk has existed, I've been much more informed and made waaaaay better plays than before it........so although I take everybodys opinion with a grain of salt, I also use some of their input.......

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Wait, so everyone here is getting smoked?

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Not me.......I just cashed out a profit of almost 38G's