The high end for me on something like this is always right around NAV.
The last trade I made was buying July $19 puts at .35, and selling them at .58. I held 16 days, and made $92 per contract. I always leave money on the table as the puts went higher, but I believe pigs get slaughtered.
The problem with ETF's like this is that people think they own the commodity. UNG owns the near months futures contract, and you need to be aware of what underlying asset the ETF's pricing is based off of.
I always look at the pricing of the stock, the spot price and fundamentals of the broader asset class, the stock options pricing, the futures contracts pricing and the future's options. I also look at liquidity, so I know I can get out if I need to if it turns the wrong way.
These are trades for me. Short term, designed to get in and out. Not long term investments. UNG would never be a long term investment for me. If you owned UNG, you wouldn't own anything in my opinion.
This post was edited on 12/11 at 7:19 am