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re: Isn't it obvious?

Posted by BallariSE on 11/29/21 at 12:12 pm to
At least as I see it, it's a matter of potential.

Riley had about as good of a setup during his time in Oklahoma as he's ever going to have (top dog in conference, only a few serious challenges in the conference, etc.), and he couldn't get it done.

If Riley couldn't get it done when his big threats were Texas, Kansas State, and Iowa State, how would he get it done when his big threats are Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M, Georgia (if he gets to the SECC) and the occasional Arkansas/Ole Miss?

We don't really know yet what Fickell is capable of when he lands at a top school, with top recruits/facilities, and playing against the top teams. He does, however, have a consistent record of success.

Or to put it another way, I think we know a lot more about Riley's potential ceiling than we do Fickell's.

Isn't it obvious?

Posted by BallariSE on 11/29/21 at 11:38 am
It's been Fickell or Kelly this whole time, with Aranda as the backup.

Here's what we know about Woodward:
- Big Game Hunter™
- Shrewd
- Generally doesn't leak

Here's what we also know about the hiring process:
- This isn't the 1990s, no one cares about bowl games unless they are playoff related
- The longer you wait, the longer you potentially bleed recruits

Woodward has had six weeks to look, and the impetus is to get your guy in place as soon as possible. If the choice were Campbell, Cristobal, Kiffen, Napier (gone to Florida), O'Brien, or Stoops, we would have known by now. There is zero reason to wait with any of them. Hand them a bag of cash and all but Cristobal would have been here Sunday afternoon.

There are only two reasons to wait:
- You put all of your eggs in one basket and whiffed
- Your guy still has playoff commitments with another team

That leaves Riley, Aranda, Smart, Harbaugh, Fickell, Saban, Gundy, and Kelly.

Smart, Saban, and Harbaugh are a giant "NO." Gundy does not meet the "Big Game Hunter" M.O. of Woodward. Riley did not meet the "Generally doesn't leak" M.O. of Woodward (it's also questionable whether a guy who is 0-3 in playoffs is "Big Game" material).

Aranda has only had one good season as HC, and was probably not the first on Woodward's radar 6 weeks ago. To my knowledge, Aranda still hasn't signed the extension with Baylor. He sounds like he is in limbo and waiting to see what all of his options are (and we know USC and Florida just closed).

That leaves Fickell and Kelly left. Both still have playoff/championship opportunities, so announcing them right now would not be helpful to either. So both meet the Woodward qualifications, and both have reasons as to why they could not be announced ASAP.

There aren't many other explanations that really make sense, though I'm all ears.