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re: What are chances U.S. doesn't qualify for World Cup?

Posted on 6/7/12 at 1:23 pm to
Posted by Sheep
Neither here nor there
Member since Jun 2007
19699 posts
Posted on 6/7/12 at 1:23 pm to
quote:

i just hope we can get results away from home.


Don't really need them, though nicking *A* win away from home helps. Win at home, draw on the road is the formula to qualify, nothing more is necessary.

2010 Hex:
Home: 4 W, 0 L, 1 T
Away: 2 W, 2 L, 1 T

That was good enough to win the group. Honduras finished third (direct qualification) by going 5-0 at home, and 1-3-1 away.

2006 Hex:
Home: 5-0-0
Away: 2-2-1

US won the group on goal differential. Costa Rica finished third, going 4-1-0 at home, 1-3-1 away.

It would take something catastrophic to finish as low as third, and I really have trouble imagining a scenario where we finish fourth or lower.
This post was edited on 6/7/12 at 1:54 pm
Posted by ohiovol
Member since Jan 2010
21120 posts
Posted on 6/7/12 at 1:40 pm to
quote:


Don't really need them, though nicking *A* win away from home helps. Win at home, draw on the road is the formula to qualify, nothing more is necessary.

2010 Hex:
Home: 4 W, 0 L, 1 T
Away: 2 W, 2 L, 2 T

That was good enough to win the group. Honduras finished third (direct qualification) by going 5-0 at home, and 1-3-1 away.

2006 Hex:
Home: 5-0-0
Away: 2-2-1

US won the group on goal differential. Costa Rica finished third, going 4-1-0 at home, 1-3-1 away.

It would take something catastrophic to finish as low as third, and I really have trouble imagining a scenario where we finish fourth or lower.


Agreed. People mention how it's difficult to play on the road, and while true, the need to remember that we'll be huge favorites at home, too.
Posted by Sheep
Neither here nor there
Member since Jun 2007
19699 posts
Posted on 6/7/12 at 1:52 pm to
16 points in the hex was good enough for 4th in 2010, 13 points in 2006 (14 in 2002).

I can't fathom not being able to get 4 wins and 3 draws in the hex. We'd nick *somebody* away.... meaning we'd have to muster three wins at home.
Posted by Meursault
Member since Sep 2003
25262 posts
Posted on 6/7/12 at 1:58 pm to
Okay. Now let's consider that we have entered the Golden Age of Mexican soccer. It is quite possible they beat us on US soil (as they have made recent habit of doing). Then what happens if a side like Honduras or Panama steals one from us at home (it's happened before. See 2009 GC & RFK 2000). 2 losses at home could be trouble for us.
Posted by Nacho Tigre
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2011
264 posts
Posted on 6/7/12 at 2:10 pm to
I think the chances of USA not qualifying are slim. When it comes to qualifying games, the US steps up. So, and as in most CONCACAF qualifying:

1. USA or Mexico
2. Mexico or USA
3. Honduras, Costa Rica or Panama

Worst case scenario, USA is #3. It will really come down to who gets #1 for bragging rights, US or Mex.

So, be calm.
Posted by ohiovol
Member since Jan 2010
21120 posts
Posted on 6/7/12 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

Okay. Now let's consider that we have entered the Golden Age of Mexican soccer. It is quite possible they beat us on US soil (as they have made recent habit of doing). Then what happens if a side like Honduras or Panama steals one from us at home (it's happened before. See 2009 GC & RFK 2000). 2 losses at home could be trouble for us.


Of course it's possible. But we'll win games on the road, too.
Posted by Nacho Tigre
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2011
264 posts
Posted on 6/7/12 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

Of course it's possible. But we'll win games on the road, too.


If there is a stat on this, I would bet the US has the most away wins and/or points.
Posted by LSUEX1925
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2012
784 posts
Posted on 6/7/12 at 3:15 pm to
The way Howard acted in the postgame interview against Canada was a good sign, the team is ready for qualifying contrary to their poor result against Canada. Even though the team didn't qualify for the Olympics the team still looks strong. Donovan, Howard and Dempsey will all play strong we just need a few other goals from the players who don't contribute as often.
Posted by MisterDoctorMister
Member since Jul 2011
387 posts
Posted on 6/7/12 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

If there is a stat on this, I would bet the US has the most away wins and/or points.


in the 2006 and 2010 hex,
The US had 14 pts combined on the road (2-1-2 each year)
Mexico had 11 pts (1-1-3 in 2010)
Costa Rica had 8 pts
Honduras had 4 pts
T&T had 4 pts
Guatemala got 1 in 2006

And if you add in all the stages in each 2006 and 2010
The US got another 17 pts for a total of 31 road points with a record of 9-4-5 in the last two qualifying cycles.

To compare Mexico got 27 road points in the same number of matches. Costa Rica got 22
Posted by Sheep
Neither here nor there
Member since Jun 2007
19699 posts
Posted on 6/7/12 at 6:34 pm to
The US is custom built for getting a draw on the road in CONCACAF.

You're going to some third world shite-hole, with "fans" climbing the fences and lobbing batteries and piss bombs at our players.

The opponent's players are amped up and ready to attack, attack, attack the gringos.

If you can bunker and counter you can hold against that, and as long as you have:

- Good goalkeeping (Meola, Keller, Friedel, Howard)
- Center backs that are good in the air (Lalas, Balboa, Berhalter, Pope, Bocanegra, Gooch, Goodson)
- One or two players that are lightning fast (Cobi Jones, Joe-Max Moore, Donovan, Beasley, Davies, Eddie Johnson)

You push the opponent to the wings, make them cross the ball in, win (or collect) that ball and release the speed. At worst, you play for a good set piece, and use the size to nick a goal on a corner.

It's a simple formula. CONCACAF teams struggle to do this to us, because they lack the goalkeeping and the size on set pieces.

Think back to how Panama beat us last year: Goalkeeper had a great game (and we missed some sitters), size on set pieces (Baloy, Gomez) and really fast wingers. Bunker, nick a goal on a set piece, get a PK and you're done.

It's ugly as shite, but that formula plays to our strengths and has for twenty years.

My concern is that Klinsmann will try to make us play "pretty" instead of playing ugly. Remember the shite show that was the 4-3-3 in Costa Rica in 2009? This is why Mexico drops points on the road.

We're built for draws on the road. Whether we play that way or not remains to be seen. Tuesday should tell us a lot.
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24814 posts
Posted on 6/7/12 at 6:37 pm to
quote:

Even though the team didn't qualify for the Olympics the team still looks strong


2 different teams......you know that, right?
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