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Will Turkey Annex Northern Syria?

Posted on 1/22/19 at 8:53 pm
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
19255 posts
Posted on 1/22/19 at 8:53 pm
LINK

quote:

Ankara is trying to annex as much Syrian territory as possible, including over 13,000 sq. km in northeast Syria. Turkey has given many indications of its willingnes to negotiate an exchange with Russia.


The alleged deal, Idlib for Afrin, and the rest of north.

What would that mean for the Kurds?

quote:

The Kurds will defend their territory but will end up abandoning their villages – as they did in Afrin – and migrating towards Syrian army-controlled area.


Trump has proposed giving northern Syria to Turkey. If the Russians accept this, I don’t know why they would, then Turkey will truly become a heavy weight in the region.

This will also be a different Turkey, religious, expansionist, prone to foreign interventions.

Liberal Turks shake their head and say the Ottoman days are over. But Erdogan doesn’t think that way.

-

Articles like this are also part of the Syrian governments pressure campaign. They want the Kurds to give up their dreams of independence, and submit to Damascus.

The government is also right. This is the Kurds only option. Turkish rule would be unpleasant for the Kurds.
This post was edited on 1/22/19 at 9:16 pm
Posted by OleWar
Troy H. Middleton Library
Member since Mar 2008
5828 posts
Posted on 1/22/19 at 8:58 pm to
I remember several years ago a Turkish officer telling me something about how Turkey assumed they would get part of Iraq after the First Gulf War, but Bush double crossed him. He seemed sincerely pissed about the whole thing.

On the other hand would this really help them defeat the Kurdish insurgency.
Posted by TrueTiger
Chicken's most valuable
Member since Sep 2004
67948 posts
Posted on 1/22/19 at 9:00 pm to
quote:

Turkish rule would be unpleasant for the Kurds.



like it was for the Armenians
Posted by CoachChappy
Member since May 2013
32546 posts
Posted on 1/22/19 at 9:03 pm to
I don’t know what will happen, but it is not our problem.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
19255 posts
Posted on 1/22/19 at 9:07 pm to
quote:

I remember several years ago a Turkish officer telling me something about how Turkey assumed they would get part of Iraq after the First Gulf War, but Bush double crossed him. He seemed sincerely pissed about the whole thing.



Interesting.

I wonder if they simply misunderstood the administration?

quote:

On the other hand would this really help them defeat the Kurdish insurgency.


Aye, it would make it simpler. It eliminates a safe haven and cuts their supply line.

And they’d eventually take Northern Iraq too.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
19255 posts
Posted on 1/22/19 at 9:08 pm to
quote:

I don’t know what will happen, but it is not our problem.



Trump gave Erodgan our permission, so we own the consequences, more or less.

This would upset the power balance, and lead to a three way fight for control of the region between the Sauds, the Iranians, and the Turks.
This post was edited on 1/22/19 at 9:12 pm
Posted by CoachChappy
Member since May 2013
32546 posts
Posted on 1/22/19 at 9:12 pm to
quote:

we own the consequences.

Not our problem. The Middle East is a shite hole. We need to leave and never return.

Posted by Green Chili Tiger
Lurking the Tin Foil Hat Board
Member since Jul 2009
47610 posts
Posted on 1/22/19 at 9:13 pm to

Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
19255 posts
Posted on 1/22/19 at 9:14 pm to
We don’t have to do anything.

We need to not do something.
Posted by OleWar
Troy H. Middleton Library
Member since Mar 2008
5828 posts
Posted on 1/22/19 at 9:24 pm to
quote:

This would upset the power balance, and lead to a three way fight for control of the region between the Sauds, the Iranians, and the Turks.


The other question is how involved do the Russians get. Historically they were the backers of the Kurds before we got involved.

And in some ways the War in Chechnya and in Kurdistan were two sides of the same coin in the 1990s. As each covertly supported the others enemy. Supposedly there was some deal by Putin which was part of him stabilizing Chechnya.
Posted by Sunbeam
Member since Dec 2016
2612 posts
Posted on 1/22/19 at 9:25 pm to
quote:

Aye, it would make it simpler. It eliminates a safe haven and cuts their supply line.



Simpler? If Kurds don't outnumber ethnic Turks in this version of Turkey, it will be close. Plus the demographic trend is firmly behind the Kurds.

I'm not a middle-easterner, but this doesn't sound like a good idea to me.
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