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Posted on 7/18/17 at 10:29 am to MsGarrison
He basically already is.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 10:33 am to MsGarrison
Dems have literally zero chance of taking the Senate in 2018 and it will be extremely difficult for them to take the house with the way districts are drawn up since the 2010 census.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 11:13 am to MsGarrison
quote:
Republicans will probably not control both the houses after the 2018 midterms.
Considering the Dems record in special elections lately..... no.
MAGA
Posted on 7/18/17 at 11:28 am to MsGarrison
Yes. Around July/August of 2023 he will be a lame duck on a nostalgia tour and holding rallies for the future President (Pence).
Posted on 7/18/17 at 11:32 am to MsGarrison
quote:
Will Trump become a lame duck president?
He hasn't signed any major legislation into law, and that trend doesn't look like it is reversing anytime soon. Does it matter?
Posted on 7/18/17 at 11:37 am to MsGarrison
quote:
Dems will likely take one.
They have a decent shot at taking the house. It depends on what gets accomplished and the economy, and how russia unfolds.
Very small chance at taking the senate. Everything would have to go completely wrong for them to have a shot, and the democrats would actually have to articulate policies.
Reality is that trump is pretty much lame duck already. He has no signature legislation passed, and will be limited to appointments and executive orders. I don't see trump getting anything big through the senate.
You could also see moderate Rs move to be Independents - collins and heller are two examples.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 11:38 am to MsGarrison
The GOP will retain the senate but 60 remains a fading dream.
The House is in play.
Trump is already a lame duck.
The House is in play.
Trump is already a lame duck.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 11:42 am to Bunyan
quote:
Agreed. Tax reform (corporate/personal rates) will be incredible
I honestly have zero faith that this will be passed. This legislative branch is useless
Posted on 7/18/17 at 11:57 am to MsGarrison
quote:
So what do you think happens?
House
Currently:R-240, D-194, 1 vacant.
I expect Dems will pick up some seats, but not enough to obtain a majority. There is a very small chance that they get the majority, but I wouldn't bet on it. SCOTUS case on Gerrymandering could have massive impact if they make states redistrict. Republicans have a major advantage right now due to gerrymandering. Even if Dems run excellent campaigns (which obviously some won't), the upside is limited.
Big Impact Items: Pelosi (does she retire/recognize she needs to go) SCOTUS gerrymandering case (for obvious reasons).
Could vary wildly.
SENATE:
34 seats up (33 +1 AL special)
25 D, 9 R.
Some are safe obviously. Both parties have something good, and terrible for them.
1. The Map: Good for R's, Horrible for D's. Simple
2. Incumbency: Good for D's, Bad for R's: Incumbents opposite Presidents party dont lose. In the past 9 midterms, a grand total of 4 incumbents from opposite POTUS' party have lost. 110-114 win re-election. (96.5% win rate)
3. Candidate Quality: Right now, R's haven't gotten many top tier challengers. States that have recruited good candidates have gotten beat up via primary challenges or getting killed by on the record positions.
I could see anywhere from +8 for R's, to +3 for D's. Still too early to make any decent predictions without candidates for many states.
But for now, many red state Dems are sitting pretty without good challengers while racking up $. Flake and Heller are in some major trouble, with environment/history/challengers.
This post was edited on 7/18/17 at 12:02 pm
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