US crime and mortality is declining fast — what can the UK and EU learn?

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US crime and mortality is declining fast — what can the rest of us learn?
America is making progress in driving down violent deaths and those from some dangerous diseases
by John Burn-Murdoch
23 May 2026

What could Europe possibly have to learn from America on crime, health and mortality? Perhaps more than you might think.

For decades the stereotype of the US has been of an unhealthy and dangerous society, with eye-watering rates of violent crime and obesity, and appallingly low and stagnant life expectancy. In terms of levels, much of that remains true. But on direction of travel the story is beginning to change.

Life expectancy has increased in most countries in recent years as mortality rates receded from their Covid highs. But US lifespans have not merely returned to pre-pandemic (or even pre-fentanyl) levels, they are on a record-setting climb. Today, American men can expect to live to 77.3 years, 1.5 years longer than a decade ago. In the UK the equivalent gain has been a mere six months. In Germany it has been essentially zero. The American lifespan deficit to western Europe is on course this year to be its narrowest since 2012.

Similarly, US rates of homicide and crime more broadly have not merely returned to their baseline after the wave of deadly disorder between 2020 and 2023 — rates of violence and criminality are setting all-time record lows in cities and states across the country.

These two stories overlap to a certain extent. Violence and drugs disproportionately take young lives, meaning they have exerted an outsized drag on average US lifespans. As these distorting scourges subside, we can begin to see what the underlying trends in America’s health and society look like. The answer is perhaps less grim than some might have imagined.
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America has long been a cautionary tale on crime and healthcare. Certainly in many ways its deeply imperfect system remains a lesson in what not to do. But when a bad situation improves — and does so beyond most reasonable expectations — we should pause to consider what it may be getting right.

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