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Started By
Message
The Fundamental Problem with US Budgets at this point...........unsolvable
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:06 pm
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:06 pm
I've been saying for a while that the following statement is true.
There are ZERO political solutions to the US Budget/Debt issues.
The reality is, we are at the point(and have been) where doing the right thing would absolutely 100% result in short term pain/negative economic results. Such results would then, immediately get you UN-elected and, the new guys would reverse course.
Thus, with rare exception, there are really only 2 politically viable politicians electorally.
1. Person who continues driving towards the cliff.
2. Person who wishes to press on the gas.
Those are your two choices boys. Mandatory/automatic increases in spending already have baked in driving over the cliff. The only question at this point is, how fast do we get there?
The reality is, we will not solve the problem until after we drive over. And, the pain will be immense.
There are ZERO political solutions to the US Budget/Debt issues.
The reality is, we are at the point(and have been) where doing the right thing would absolutely 100% result in short term pain/negative economic results. Such results would then, immediately get you UN-elected and, the new guys would reverse course.
Thus, with rare exception, there are really only 2 politically viable politicians electorally.
1. Person who continues driving towards the cliff.
2. Person who wishes to press on the gas.
Those are your two choices boys. Mandatory/automatic increases in spending already have baked in driving over the cliff. The only question at this point is, how fast do we get there?
The reality is, we will not solve the problem until after we drive over. And, the pain will be immense.
This post was edited on 3/22/18 at 2:07 pm
15
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:08 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
1. Person who continues driving towards the cliff.
2. Person who wishes to press on the gas.
3. Person that cuts revenue and steps on the gas.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:09 pm to ShortyRob
Hammer down and lets see how fast we can get there.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:09 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
3. Person that cuts revenue and steps on the gas.
Fine.
Same problem.
Personally, I think the only shot in hell we have is to cause foreign investment dollars to stream in via attractive tax policy.
Honestly, I consider it too late even for that. But, everything else is just shifting chairs.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:11 pm to ShortyRob
You are 100% right. I bring this up every time people start begging for a balanced budget amendment. If we were forced to balance the federal budget next year it would cause a massive disruption to the economy which would make 2008 look like a boom time.
The length of time that the massive pain would last before some semblance of normalcy returns is the only thing that is up for debate.
The length of time that the massive pain would last before some semblance of normalcy returns is the only thing that is up for debate.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:13 pm to Haughton99
quote:
You are 100% right. I bring this up every time people start begging for a balanced budget amendment. If we were forced to balance the federal budget next year it would cause a massive disruption to the economy which would make 2008 look like a boom time.
The length of time that the massive pain would last before some semblance of normalcy returns is the only thing that is up for debate.
Unfortunately, there's no policy that avoids the pain being fairly protracted at this point and each year that passes merely makes doing it LESS likely.
I mean if you won't cut your finger off to save your life today, you're probably not going to cut your arm off to save it tomorrow.
Talent won't save us at this point.
I liken it to hiring the best CEO and management team available on the planet and asking them to try and save Blockbuster Video in 2010.
This post was edited on 3/22/18 at 2:15 pm
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:17 pm to ShortyRob
I had high hopes for Sequestration, and it was starting to work especially with military spending.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:20 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:You could cut our entire military and we're still fricked.
I had high hopes for Sequestration, and it was starting to work especially with military spending.
It's really that bad.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:20 pm to ShortyRob
of course there is a solution.
It would require two things.
1. Line Item Veto
2. Removal of the senate cloture rule.
It would require two things.
1. Line Item Veto
2. Removal of the senate cloture rule.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:22 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
The reality is, we will not solve the problem until after we drive over. And, the pain will be immense.
I'm willing to vote for someone who does this:
quote:
doing the right thing would absolutely 100% result in short term pain/negative economic results.
In order to pass this nation on to my kids in a positive manner.
Someone has to eat the shite sandwich that's been created. Might as well be us.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:22 pm to HeyHeyHogsAllTheWay
quote:
of course there is a solution.
It would require two things.
1. Line Item Veto
2. Removal of the senate cloture rule.
False.
Because, even if you passed what was necessary............as I've pointed out. There's ZERO avoiding substantial economic upheaval as a result in the short term.
Which, would immediately result in an election blood bath for those who did it.
And, viola', back to driving towards the cliff.
The problem ain't in DC. It's in everyone's bathroom mirror.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:23 pm to ShortyRob
I think the biggest failure of the Obama presidency is that he didn't deal with government spending like he promised when he could, and instead used that political capital on a health care bill that was, at it's essence, a giveaway for insurance companies. He could have had the stimulus and also done something about the long term budget with the GOP like Bill/Gingrich did.
Trump has been no better, a massive tax cut when you're in a deficit as it is makes no sense.
Trump has been no better, a massive tax cut when you're in a deficit as it is makes no sense.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:23 pm to Yak
quote:
I'm willing to vote for someone who does this:
quote:
In order to pass this nation on to my kids in a positive manner.
Even if you got a majority to do it.....once. The results would get them creamed in short order in the next election.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:25 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
I think the biggest failure of the Obama presidency is that he didn't deal with government spending like he promised when he could,
No offense, but he couldn't.
Neither party's base has a majority willing to do what should be done. But no more than 10% of Democrat voters fall into that category(and I'm being HIGHLY optimistic on that one).
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:25 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
a massive tax cut when you're in a deficit as it is makes no sense.
1) Then there would NEVER be a tax cut
2) The idea was that it would INCREASE revenues. I'm not arguing the economic point. Just that THAT is the concept. Tax RATE cut does not equal tax revenue cut (in all cases)
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:25 pm to ShortyRob
As it stands, we are basically financing a portion of our economic growth. If we balanced the budget and paid down the debt, we’d stunt our own growth. There’s no free lunch.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:26 pm to ShortyRob
quote:Yeah I know. For this to even happen would take years of debating with the public and getting them to understand things are going to be really shitty.
Even if you got a majority to do it.....once. The results would get them creamed in short order in the next election.
That won't happen. But I'd at least vote for that public servant willing to take that hit on the chin like the hero he/she would be
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:26 pm to BlackHelicopterPilot
quote:
2) The idea was that it would INCREASE revenues. I'm not arguing the economic point. Just that THAT is the concept. Tax RATE cut does not equal tax revenue cut (in all cases)
while true, the tax cut they did pass was irresponsible and was not done with the Laffer curve in mind whatsoever.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:27 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
Trump has been no better, a massive tax cut when you're in a deficit as it is makes no sense.
Nonsense. IF that tax break results in MORE revenue for the government then of course it was a good idea. Time will tell if that plays out, but so far indicators are good.
Now, when you couple that with increased spending, not so good. But again, anyone who can read can tell that the Democrats in the Senate held this bill hostage to get what they wanted. It was either change the rules, give in, or let the government come to a stop again.
Republicans chose to give in.
Posted on 3/22/18 at 2:28 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
No offense, but he couldn't.
Neither party's base has a majority willing to do what should be done. But no more than 10% of Democrat voters fall into that category(and I'm being HIGHLY optimistic on that one).
Maybe not.
GWB definitely got the ball rolling with his little trillion dollar foray into a country that hadn't attacked us, had not threatened to attack us, and had nothing to do with 9/11. Yet the right told us we were unpatriotic for not supporting the war and to sit down and shut up.
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