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RCP has Harris down to +1 in poll average

Posted on 10/21/24 at 8:05 am
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
79391 posts
Posted on 10/21/24 at 8:05 am
It's [Happening] Not Happening
Posted by armtackledawg
Member since Aug 2017
13552 posts
Posted on 10/21/24 at 8:08 am to
Even better, going back to early August - over two months ago, the only poll that showed Trump leading was Rasmussen. There are now 4 polls in the last week that show him leading. Unless something changes fast, this is going to be a strong Trump victory.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
133064 posts
Posted on 10/21/24 at 8:11 am to
RCP polling averages by state has Trump with 312 EVs and Harris with 226.
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
13367 posts
Posted on 10/21/24 at 8:44 am to
Nate silver says there is a +2.0 national poll bias with respect to getting to 270 EC votes with favor to republicans. Through out that poll have been off favoring Dems in past few elections. This does not bode well for Dems.

Also, trends/momentum is moving towards Trump and away from Harris.

Biggest question, “does this also correlate to down ballot”. If so Dems are in big trouble
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
79391 posts
Posted on 10/21/24 at 8:50 am to
Trump is going to win the popular vote

You will then see a realignment of the Democrat party
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