re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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The Iran war effectively destroyed every nation outside of the Americas as a rival to the U.S.

Iran is broken as a contender for power; they can't even sell their oil. Tankers are ignoring the IRGC and transiting via Omani territorial waters, protected by the U.S. Navy. Iran is too cowardly to commit acts of war off the Omani coast. Oman has also made it clear that they will never support Iran's delusional plan to toll the Strait.

Iran can't get a single tanker to dock at its ports. Their economy is in a tailspin. Iranian inflation is approaching pre-Milei Argentine numbers. A famine is a very real possibility; Iran imports half of its food and no one is willing to sell to a pirate state that keeps shooting at commercial traffic.

Iran has failed to uphold its end of the MOU and thus hasn't received a single dollar in unfrozen funds or Gulf development aid. The MOU was a test to see if they could behave rationally when their military leverage is gone and their economic leverage is fast eroding. They failed.

Demand destruction has been concentrated almost entirely in Europe and Asia. China and India are crippled. The Chinese will be faced with the choice of switching off their data centers, stalling "development" of the AI they stole from xAI and Anthropic, or forcing starving Chinese citizens to eat babies.

Europe, already deindustrializing thanks to the Ukraine war, has been dealt a death blow. They won't recover for decades, possibly generations. Denmark might end up selling Greenland to us to stave off a depression.

The war has forced countries reliant on Strait oil flows to accelerate their plan Bs in the same way that the 70s oil embargo forced the U.S. to begin oil extraction in Alaska. The UAE will complete the new Gulf of Oman pipeline, rendering the Strait obsolete, much like how the discovery of the Americas allowed Europe to circumvent the Middle East when trading with China, turning the region into an irrelevant backwater.

The country that benefited the most from the war was America. Iran has been severed from the global economy and even from BRICS. Buyers now have to go to America or her allies. Refineries in Texas and Louisiana are booming thanks to Venezuela realigning with the U.S. and sending its crude to our shores. China will have to do what we say if they want energy.

Energy prices in the U.S. are now so substantially lower than in Europe and Asia that offshoring and outsourcing are no longer financially prudent. Turns out that the way for manufacturing to compete with cheap labor countries like India is to make the cheap labor expensive. Jobs and investment are coming back to America, the only sure bet. With demand destruction creating an oil glut, Americans will be enjoying $2.50/gallon gas or lower by next year while the rest of the world starves.

The Iran war has even crippled Russia. A combination of demand destruction and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries has sparked off an energy crisis there. We might actually see the Mongols driven out of Donbass and total Ukrainian victory.

In one stroke, Trump cemented American dominance over the world. Iran, China, India, Europe, Russia, Africa...all crushed. He pressed the "fix everything" button and all it took was paying 50 cents more at the pump for a couple of months. I'd say that was more than worth it.

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Mahyar Tousi is trying to move Tousi.TV from the UK to Florida through an investment visa and despite fulfilling those requirements has run into some red tape because he was born in Iran. He’s asking for anyone with high level contacts in the State Dept for help in expediting. I’ve enjoyed his coverage for the last several months and he seems like a really good guy.

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Additionally, both sides are not slinging crap at each other because of the holiday and the funeral of the ayatollah. I expect resumption of the normal routine of attacking shipping and us responding by bombing something on the coast to resume once this weekend passes.

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The funeral of the ayatollah is underway.

From Al-Jazeera:

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Mapping Iran’s Ali Khamenei funeral: Where mourners will gather each day

Funeral ceremonies and processions for Iran’s late supreme leader will take place between July 3-9 in several cities across Iran and Iraq before his burial in Mashhad.

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Link to full story

Allegedly there were some jimmies rustled today between Saudi Arabia and Iran's proxy, the Houthis.

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Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree: Saudi fighter jets tried early this morning to block an "Iranian civilian aircraft" carrying stranded Yemeni citizens from Iran as it entered Yemeni airspace. He claims Houthi forces fired surface-to-air missiles at the Saudi jets, forcing them to turn back and allowing the Iranian plane to land in Sanaa.

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KHAMEINI FUNERAL TURNOUT FALLS SHORT OF REGIME CLAIMS

Despite claims of “tens of millions” attending Ali Khamenei’s funeral, reports from the scene show turnout so far has been far smaller — with crowds appearing to number in the hundreds, many reportedly foreign nationals.

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David Keyes

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Economic python tightening

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Why is no one buying their oil?

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Oh they are buying it alright, just not through traditional channels.

Ask the Iraqi politicians and deputy oil minister who have recently been arrested why they have been arrested.

Iran has been transferring their oil, mixed with Iraqi crude to mask the origin of the oil. After kickbacks to several Iraqi politicians, Iran gets their money. Apparently Donald had enough of that and "requested" the Iraqis do something about it and they did.

One baw had $14M in his walls

The IRGC has been threatening ships who are using the Omani corridor and allegedly have stopped its use:

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In the past 24 hours, Iran reportedly closed the US-Omani designated shipping corridor created to bypass Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Only one vessel used the route near Oman. Several ships that planned to transit there allegedly made U-turns after warnings from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy and rerouted through the Iranian-controlled corridor.

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