Let's talk about jobs during Trump's second term

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Today’s October report (released this morning) is the most recent data. By my own rough arithmetic, the second term has added about 1 million jobs net, which is slow compared with earlier years. A broad net gain hides large differences between sectors.

The headline numbers

The economy added 165,000 jobs in October, well above the 65,000 economists expected, and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%. September’s initial 29,000 was revised up to 60,000.

Through ten months of 2026, the economy has created 861,000 jobs, about 86,000 a month.
2025 was much weaker. The averages were 9,200 jobs a month in 2025 and 108,800 in 2024. Adding the 2025 and 2026 figures gives roughly 970,000 jobs since January 2025. That is my arithmetic, not a published figure.

The unemployment rate was 4.0% in January 2025. It rose as high as 4.6% in late 2025 and has since come back to 4.1%.

Where jobs were lost

Federal government: Federal payroll employment fell from 3.010 million in January 2025 to 2.674 million in August 2026, a drop of about 336,000 jobs, or 11.2%. Most of the cuts came in the first year, and federal employment is down only about 11,000 since January 2026.

Manufacturing: It lost jobs through 2025, which critics tied to tariffs. It has recovered recently. Manufacturing employment is now 8,000 above its January 2025 level, according to EPI economist Elise Gould. It has grown by 101,000 since a low in December 2025.


Where jobs were gained

Health care and social assistance have carried most of the growth. Economist Dean Baker noted that health care added 436,000 jobs in the year to January 2026, more than the economy’s total gain over that period. Health care added another 42,000 in October.

Recent gains elsewhere: Professional and business services added 70,000 in October and factories added 19,000. Some of the construction and manufacturing hiring appears tied to AI and data centers.

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OBS ADDED IN TRUMP’S SECOND TERM: SPECIFICS BY INDUSTRY, JOB TYPE, PAY AND SENIORITY
(Data as of the BLS October 2026 jobs report, released November 6, 2026)

A NOTE ON THE DATA
The monthly BLS jobs report counts jobs by industry, not by job title, pay or seniority. Industry figures and totals below come directly from that report. Job titles are my inference from who works in those industries. Pay figures come from BLS occupational wage data (May 2025) and the industry sources named.

HEALTH CARE (the biggest engine)
Health care added 42,000 jobs in October: hospitals +16,000, home health care services +11,000, outpatient care centers +5,000 (BLS). The report does not say which job titles were hired.

Typical occupations and median pay (BLS, May 2025):

Home health and personal care aides: $35,800. This is the largest occupation in the country, at about 4.3 million jobs, and it is entry-level.
Nursing assistants: $42,260.
Medical assistants: $45,690.
Registered nurses: $97,550. This is a mid-career role requiring a degree and a license.
Nurse practitioners: $132,300. This is an advanced-degree role.

My inference: home health growth is mostly aides, and hospital growth mixes nurses, technicians and support staff. Pay has not kept up with prices. An Altarum analysis found health care wages fell 2.0% year over year after adjusting for inflation (May 2026).

PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES (+70,000 in October)
The sector averaged only 15,000 a month over the prior year, so October was a surge. The gains were in professional, scientific and technical services (+33,000), administrative and support services (+28,000) and management of companies (+9,000). Temp-help services rose by about 18,600. The sector is up 269,000 since its low in October 2025 (BLS).

This category covers very different jobs:

Professional, scientific and technical services includes accountants, engineers, consultants, lawyers and IT staff. These are mostly salaried, mid-career roles.
Administrative and support services includes staffing agencies, call centers and building services such as janitorial and security work. These are mostly lower-paid and entry-level.

The report does not split the 70,000 any further.

TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING (+25,000)
October’s gain came from couriers and messengers (+17,000) and air transportation (+4,000). The sector has added 104,000 jobs since February, 71,000 of them couriers (BLS). Think package and last-mile delivery drivers.

Median courier pay is about $39,200 a year, or $18.85 an hour (wage-data aggregator citing BLS figures). It is a high-school-diploma, entry-level occupation.

MANUFACTURING (+19,000)
Gains were in computer and electronic products (+7,000), machinery (+4,000) and primary metals (+4,000). Manufacturing has added 101,000 jobs since December 2025. These are production jobs such as machine operators, assemblers, machinists and technicians. I did not find a reliable wage figure for them. The average workweek was 40.5 hours with 3.1 hours of overtime.

CONSTRUCTION AND DATA CENTERS
Construction overall was flat in October (-3,000). Nonresidential specialty trades rose by about 7,900, while residential specialty trades fell by about 15,200 (BLS detail table). NBC reported that data center demand is likely behind the nonresidential gains.

Pay in this area is the best of any category. Skillit, a construction hiring platform, reports data center construction workers average about $81,800 a year ($39.33 an hour), roughly 32% above comparable non-data-center builds. Typical titles are electricians, welders, pipefitters and HVAC technicians, which are skilled-trade and often union or apprenticeship-trained roles. The industry worries the boom may not last.

OVERALL PAY
Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers were $38.00 in October, up 3.1% over 12 months. Production and nonsupervisory workers earn $32.75 an hour (BLS). The new jobs are split between lower-wage roles (home health aides, couriers) and a few high-wage pockets (nurses, skilled trades, professional services).

SENIORITY
The monthly report has nothing on seniority, but other data suggests hiring is tilting toward experienced workers:

Entry-level job postings are down 7.5% from a year ago, while senior postings are up 14.7% (Indeed Hiring Lab, as cited by a recruiting firm).
Recent-graduate unemployment was 5.6% in early 2026, versus 4.2% for all workers (New York Fed).
Unemployment for ages 20 to 24 was 7.5% in October, versus 4.1% overall (BLS).
Unemployment in October was 5.8% for adults without a high school diploma and 2.6% for those with a bachelor’s degree or higher (BLS).

Whether AI is behind the weak entry-level market is disputed. One September 2026 study found recent-graduate unemployment of 7.3% in summer 2026, within the range of the previous four years, with no statistically significant AI effect.

CAVEAT ON THE OCTOBER REPORT
The number of people working part time because their hours were cut or they couldn’t find full-time work rose by 339,000 to 4.8 million (BLS). That suggests some of the labor market is weaker than the headline number shows.

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