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re: Laura Ingram concerned about internal GOP polling
Posted on 7/31/18 at 1:30 pm to Jjdoc
Posted on 7/31/18 at 1:30 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
they think like 90% of the people in this thread. over confident and arrogant about what's happening. Reminds me of Hillary not going to certain states because she knew she would win.
Hillary Clinton and the 2016 polls was truly lightning in a bottle and I would be shocked as shite if it happened again.
So we have to assume the polls are right until we're proven wrong.
The GOP cannot afford to get complacent when they are so many more projects that Congress need to work on while Donald Trump is still POTUS.
2
Posted on 7/31/18 at 1:36 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
People who supported Trump are pissed at some people who are refusing to get the job done.
Those people have gone for Trump candidates and are sitting down on the GOPE. That means those seats are at risk.
quote:
That is going to depend on if the GOPE (and they are not going to budge due to their money) moves to enact Trump's mandate.
Border wall being the top issue.
It's like the GOPe and quite a few conservatives don't understand that there's a grand bargain here.
Trump delivers the goods on things conventional republicans support like deregulation, Israel shilling, fossil energy, tax cuts, and killing ISIS.
The bill comes due on immigration and trade and they don't want to pay up.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 1:43 pm to Sentrius
quote:
The GOP cannot afford to get complacent when they are so many more projects that Congress need to work on while Donald Trump is still POTUS
Again 100% right.
If they maintain control of both chambers, there will be a real shot at putting activist judges out and getting NEW blood into office that are not career politicians.
That's a bonus to the agenda of Trump.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 1:44 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
If they maintain control of both chambers, there will be a real shot at putting activist judges out and getting NEW blood into office that are not career politicians.
They only need the senate for that.
The senate is the chamber that Trump cannot afford to lose.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 1:45 pm to Sentrius
quote:
The bill comes due on immigration and trade and they don't want to pay up.
That's because they are paid for. It's inTHEIR best interest if things stay the way they are. Not yours, not mine, but theirs.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 1:45 pm to Northwestern tiger
The actual election has not started yet.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 1:50 pm to Northwestern tiger
Lol Trump is going Campaigning for the candidates
Cant wait for those Rallies
Blue Wave is fricked
Cant wait for those Rallies
Blue Wave is fricked
Posted on 7/31/18 at 1:57 pm to GumboPot
quote:
In 2016 polling outfits were polling likely voters. Seem reasonable until you realize Trump voters are not likely voters. They came out to vote for Trump when in previous elections they basically stayed home.
While true, it only reflected a 2% change from 2008 though. And that is merely overall participation, not just for tGOP.
60% for 2016
58% for 2012
62% for 2008
Of course this was for POTUS election, not midterms.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 2:05 pm to idlewatcher
It is still 3 months til elections. I just dont see how the Dems can pick up seats. Trump has proven that the Democrat policy of taxing business and rich people to death is bad for the economy. If that many people in the suburbs have decided we need to try socialism again then we are fricked as a country. I just dont see it happening.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 2:06 pm to Northwestern tiger
This makes no sense to me. Dems are running on a platform that puts illegals above citizens, raising taxes on the working class, and "Resist" everything Trump. I just don't see the independents flocking to vote progressive when Trump clearly has the economy rolling along and puts the needs and safety of Americans above other countrys.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 2:08 pm to Sentrius
quote:
Hillary Clinton and the 2016 polls was truly lightning in a bottle and I would be shocked as shite if it happened again.
Oh, and the RCP national average was pretty Fing close at a national level. The polling was more accurate than 2008 or 2012. Now the state polling was off in quite a few spots.
As to if the polls are off this time around, we won't know until November. But one thing to remember is that generally pollsters fix the last problem they saw. If 2016 was outlier polling wise, then there is a chance that pollsters over-corrected.
The polling should probably be a pretty big concern for rank and file / RNC. Of course, when you say the polling is wrong and the polling predicted the race incorrectly (state level at least) last time around, republicans will continue to believe the polls are wrong scenario.
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