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Message
re: Iran hasn’t started a war with anyone
Posted on 4/30/18 at 8:06 pm to crazy4lsu
Posted on 4/30/18 at 8:06 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Shia politics the key factor in this particular geopolitical exercise.
Well, out of a lot of very astute and obviously-educated analysis, this to me, seems the bottom line. It's what a lot of us fear.
Do the Mullahs that run Iran truly BELIEVE in their Religion (and all therein) or is it just for the purpose which you posit; I.e., resurrecting their former glory. Islamist contempt for the Jews, Christians and Secular folk who do not tow the subservient line, is met with real violence; though the Sunni (Fundamentalist/Islamist) version seems just as lethal to non-Muslims, if not more so than the Shia.
I think that contemporary Muslims who attempt to resurrect former Muslim dominance in THEIR Countries, as well as assume the action (World Caliphate) that true BELIEF elicits, have painted themselves into a corner wherein if they abandon the Mandate of their Prophet...then they are mocked and loose face in the eyes of their Religious 'opposition'.
I was heartened to see some ray of common sense in that Saudi Ruler. IMO, given that the People of Iran are mostly common-sensical and Secular-leaning, then the problem is the Fundamentalist Mullahs...and Regime change in Iran seems the solution. Now how that Regime change is engineered, without provoking a Tribalist/Nationalist sentiment in good folk who love their Nation and are proud of their Cultural and Racial heritage...is the hurdle that must be overcome. The Younguns over there were ripe for change just a few years back...but got NOTHING from Obama; and they were gunned down in the streets. They know...and THEY are the ones that should be addressed with offers of an *Iranian Deal*.
If those Mullahs truly believe in and act upon their 12th Imam Scenario, and the ultimate imposition of a World Caliphate...then that whole Region will fulfill the Prophecy of Biblical lore. As we all will. And it will hurt.
Pray for the abandonment of false pride, and peace and prosperity through Vision and Truth. Screw war. Einstein was right about not knowing what WWIII would be fought with...but knowing that WWIV would be fought with clubs and rocks.
1
Posted on 4/30/18 at 8:29 pm to RCDfan1950
quote:
Do the Mullahs that run Iran truly BELIEVE in their Religion (and all therein) or is it just for the purpose which you posit;
I actually have a long post about this that I've been working on. So Shia eschatology is very specific. There are ten signs for the reappearance of the Mahdi, five certain and five uncertain. The certain signs are so specific that it would be very hard to bring those things about. Also, in 1988, Khomeini himself told The Guardian Council that where matters of state were concerned, the continuation of the Islamic Republic superseded Islamic Laws, which is itself a move a secular state would make, not an explicitly religious one. A reformist by the name of Saeed Hajjarian, who was in the intelligence sector during the 80s and was one of the students who stormed the embassy, pointed out this aspect of the republic, as well as uncovering the role the state had in the Chain Murders of the 80s, for which he was shot in the face.
Because Shia eschatology is so specific, I don't think anything Iran is doing is with the specific aim of bringing about the "Mahdi." Rather, their concerns have to do with projecting power onto groups of people, who were former subjects, through the common bond of Twelver Shiaism. If Pan-Germanic philosophy of the Nazis had worked out, then maybe the Iranians would use the pan-Iranic philosophies of the 30s as their organizing principle. It's a function of history that pan-ethnic movements didn't work, and all that remained as far as organizing principles was Shiaism, as before the Lebanese Civil War, Shiaism wasn't tied to politics, as mullahs took a quietest approach to politics, which is where Khomeini was truly revolutionary.
I have lots more reason to discount Shia eschatology as a danger, but that doesn't do anything about Irans ability to organize groups along strictly sectarian lines.
What the Iranians want is their traditional sphere of influence, and they are acting with immanent rather than apocalyptic aims. If they were acting with the latter in mind, then sanctions relief wouldn't take such precedence in their dealings with the West.
Posted on 4/30/18 at 8:35 pm to crazy4lsu
I think the people on here saying Israel alone would crush Iran don’t realize the IDF’s primary mission set is defensive warfare not offensive operations. If they decided to go into Iran it would be a logistical nightmare
They have been stopped dead in their tracks in Lebanon.
They have been stopped dead in their tracks in Lebanon.
Posted on 4/30/18 at 8:44 pm to crazy4lsu
Well stated, c. 
I hope you're right.
I hope you're right. Posted on 4/30/18 at 8:53 pm to RCDfan1950
It's a difficult subject to parse. For example, the Haghani movement believes in the the coming of the Mahdi within these times, and they do have influence. That movement put secular education in hawza at Qom, technically satisfying one of the uncertain signs, which states that Qom will become a center of science and learning. Although it is up for debate whether it has become a center of science. At the same time, the other signs are either so vague that they could apply to any time period, or so specific that it seems impossible. Another sign says that there will be a solar eclipse during Ramadan and a lunar eclipse to end it. I did some research on that and no such occurrence will happen for at least the next decade, at which point I started having to calculate the dates myself and I gave up. My point here is that the specificity of Shia eschatology works against it in the immanent sense. I have numerous books which detail some of the apocryphal tales of Shia eschatology and while they are crazy, none seem metaphorically applicable. One example I remember is that an antichrist figure will come and he will have one eye and will claim he is the Mahdi and he will feed the hungry by putting his earwax on bread. The metaphorical possibilities, from what I remember, are hindered by the specificity, which makes bringing about the Qiyamat, as they call it, complicated.
Posted on 4/30/18 at 8:58 pm to 10MTNTiger
quote:
have zero doubt that Israel alone could eliminate any threat posed by Iran.
People forget that Iran was fought to a standstill by the same vaunted Iraqi army that the United States and company rolled through in a matter of weeks, twice.
Israel has been stopped in Lebanon
Posted on 4/30/18 at 9:01 pm to StraightCashHomey21
quote:
Israel has been stopped in Lebanon
Im 1982 baw
Posted on 4/30/18 at 9:03 pm to SDVTiger
No in recent history
Posted on 4/30/18 at 9:23 pm to StraightCashHomey21
quote:
No in recent history
Both Israel and the US have fought recent wars within the PC/MSM constraints of the contemporary culture, SC. And they have fought those wars and suffered loss mostly outside of their own Cities/Civilian Populations. If either were to be seriously harmed...the gloves would come off; and you can damn well bet that Israeli or American Subs would shortly annihilate any enemy which threated great harm to the Homeland, in a matter of hours. There will not be another 'Iraq' and 'Afghanistan'. The folk have had it with 'nation building'.
The last real fight was WWII. And we see how that was fought, and won. And everybody knows it. That's why they want the nukes.
Posted on 4/30/18 at 9:25 pm to StraightCashHomey21
quote:
No in recent history
they never unleashed their full power 
Posted on 4/30/18 at 9:27 pm to OnTheLevel State Fan
quote:
Message
Iran hasn’t started a war with anyone by OnTheLevel State Fan
Not to mention all those US troops that were killed and maimed by ieds supplied by iran,never should have been a deal in the first place.
Much of that was also supplied by the USA and Israel.
Posted on 4/30/18 at 9:29 pm to SDVTiger
Well they are not going to use nukes
But they called in substantial ground forces for the scale of their military including the reserves.
But they called in substantial ground forces for the scale of their military including the reserves.
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