re: BLS Jobs Report 29k added UE up to 4.2%

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The economy is growing well

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That depends on how you're defining growth. For FY2025, for every $1 YoY increasing in GDP, the government is spending ~$1.43 in deficit. Prior to the GFC, the highest it got (at least going back to the 1970s) was around $1 growth in GDP for every $.55 of deficit spending.

In other words, GDP growth is addicted to high deficits.

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My initial thought, though, is still raise the rate. The Fed cannot be concerned with fiscal policy.

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Agreed, but for me it's because those two things aren't necessarily mutually exclusive. The Fed has a "dual mandate": achieving maximum employment and achieving stable prices.

Inflation is too many Dollars chasing too few goods. When the federal government is projecting to spend at least $1.5T+ in deficit for every year for the forecastable future, that's fiscal policy and it impacts the "stable prices" part of the Fed's mandate.

The problem though is that with the economy so addicted to high levels of deficit spending, cutting back to any meaningful level (for example, holding the line at "only" $1T in deficit spending) would work against the "maximum employment" mandate. That problem becomes even worse once you start looking at the level of consumer debt and how much of our consumerism runs on that continued use and accrual of debt and debt vehicles.

In other words, in our current environment the Fed has no choice but to be concerned with fiscal policy.

What an awful economy. Everyone thinks is ok with the S&P 500 and Dow doing well, but that’s all surface level success. Deep down it’s not doing well. And 7.5% mortgage rates don’t help.

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1999
Outside Wall Street most normal people can see this.

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Well maybe its also outside of SoCal cause I dont aee anyone who is looking like its a bad time besides the unhoused that were shipped here from other states