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Amash’s Inclusion in Presidential Race Costs Biden 3x More Votes Than Trump
Posted on 5/7/20 at 10:55 am
Posted on 5/7/20 at 10:55 am
LINK
quote:
Near the end of last month, Republican turned Independent Congressman Justin Amash announced that he would be forming an exploratory committee to seek the Libertarian Party’s nomination to face off against President Donald Trump and Joe Biden in November.
We don’t know if he’ll actually end up running, but we do know for sure that if he does, he has roughly the same chance of becoming President as you do.
quote:
According to the Monmouth Poll (which has consistently produced lower approval ratings for Trump than other polls), Biden’s lead against Trump falls from 50-41 to 47-40 with the inclusion of Amash, with Amash garnering 5% of the vote. That indicates that Amash’s inclusion would take three percentage points off of Biden’s share of the popular vote, but only one percentage point away from Trump.
Or in other words, Amash’s inclusion would cost Trump one supporter for every three it costs Biden.
9
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:09 am to WPBTiger
quote:
with Amash garnering 5% of the vote
Yea sure.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:13 am to WPBTiger
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:19 am to WPBTiger
The problem is that a viable* 3rd party candidate brings in more unlikely voters into the voting rolls, which makes a poll with likely voters pretty useless.
* not that I think Amash is viable.
* not that I think Amash is viable.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:20 am to WPBTiger
All of this is just to muddy the final vote count. You may not be able to explain 5pt swing from Trump to Biden in the holdouts but you can always say a 3pt gain is enough when these "supporters" are "defecting" to Amash.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:21 am to WPBTiger
Buy that man a lightweight summer coat.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:22 am to WPBTiger
quote:
Near the end of last month, Republican turned Independent Congressman Justin Amash
China loving , anti-American piece of shite.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:25 am to WPBTiger
I unfollowed John Stossel's Freedom Institute Facebook page because it became a circle jerk for Justin Amash. How can this guy be taken seriously when he supported Trump's impeachment based on fabricated, illegally obtained "evidence," and no due process for the accused. Doesn't sound very Libertarian of him.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:33 am to idlewatcher
the bern bros....are they voting for Amash, Trump, or staying home?
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:50 am to WPBTiger
His ONLY role (outside of increasing his own political profile) would be to swing just enough votes away from Trump to allow the Democrats to win Michigan.
Trump only won Michigan by roughly 11,000 votes. Amash's congressional district is Red. I'm sure he and the anti-Trump money that would no doubt back him figure that if he could swing enough votes in his congressional district away from Trump to him, that would be enough to turn Michigan blue again in Nov.
Trump only won Michigan by roughly 11,000 votes. Amash's congressional district is Red. I'm sure he and the anti-Trump money that would no doubt back him figure that if he could swing enough votes in his congressional district away from Trump to him, that would be enough to turn Michigan blue again in Nov.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:55 am to WPBTiger
Awesome, that is 12 away from Biden and only 4 from Trump!
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