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Message
re: Why is river volume/flow (cubic ft/sec) the only trigger for Morganza and not days......
Posted on 6/8/19 at 3:20 am to Cowboyfan89
Posted on 6/8/19 at 3:20 am to Cowboyfan89
Its flow,flow,flow, that triggers the opening. Not stage, not length of time, not some politician, not the general public getting worried. It's congressional law that when the flow reaches 1.5 million cfs at Red River Landing they open the Morganza.
Wow its amazing that people can't understand this and then come on here and facebook and spew outright wrong info.
We haven't reached 1.5 million cfs at Morganza. Hell the river is lower today then it was 3 months ago.
It's not that damn hard to understand.
Don't believe me, fine, but I work for USGS, I've been working floods for 20 years giving the CORPS the flow data so they can make the decision to open or not open Bonnet Carre/Morganza. I've been coming on here telling everyone the same thing every flood fr years.
Now that I got that out the way. The relationship of stage to discharge is changing. Its a natural process. So in 2011 the water was getting really close to overtopping the Morganza gates and the trigger wasn't reached yet. But it was close and was going to happen within days so they opened it. They adjusted the language to say that if overtopping was risk and the forecast called for the trigger to be reached they could open before the trigger was reached.
This year it is not the case. There is still freeboard by the gates and the forecast has it close but not exceeding the trigger so they will not open it.
Now to the issue of the length of time in flood. Yes it is a record and yes it is concerning, but the CORPS has real human beings that drive the river road on both sides of the river from Venice to Old River inspecting the levee daily. DAILY!! Yes there is seepage but there always is. The levees are preforming as they were designed to do. They are not close to being overtopped and they will not be tested by rapid rising water like the levees up north.
So everyone calm down. BR isn't going to flood give it 3 weeks and all the water will be long gone. By not opening Morganza they are saving houses and businesses from flooding in areas near the Atchafalaya.
End rant!!
Wow its amazing that people can't understand this and then come on here and facebook and spew outright wrong info.
We haven't reached 1.5 million cfs at Morganza. Hell the river is lower today then it was 3 months ago.
It's not that damn hard to understand.
Don't believe me, fine, but I work for USGS, I've been working floods for 20 years giving the CORPS the flow data so they can make the decision to open or not open Bonnet Carre/Morganza. I've been coming on here telling everyone the same thing every flood fr years.
Now that I got that out the way. The relationship of stage to discharge is changing. Its a natural process. So in 2011 the water was getting really close to overtopping the Morganza gates and the trigger wasn't reached yet. But it was close and was going to happen within days so they opened it. They adjusted the language to say that if overtopping was risk and the forecast called for the trigger to be reached they could open before the trigger was reached.
This year it is not the case. There is still freeboard by the gates and the forecast has it close but not exceeding the trigger so they will not open it.
Now to the issue of the length of time in flood. Yes it is a record and yes it is concerning, but the CORPS has real human beings that drive the river road on both sides of the river from Venice to Old River inspecting the levee daily. DAILY!! Yes there is seepage but there always is. The levees are preforming as they were designed to do. They are not close to being overtopped and they will not be tested by rapid rising water like the levees up north.
So everyone calm down. BR isn't going to flood give it 3 weeks and all the water will be long gone. By not opening Morganza they are saving houses and businesses from flooding in areas near the Atchafalaya.
End rant!!
3
Posted on 6/8/19 at 3:33 am to ScottieP
quote:
give it 3 weeks and all the water will be long gone.
I have been thinking this since January based on history and been wrong.
Although I dont work for an alphabet agency I have spent 50 years on a farm with the river as our western property line and have never seen anything like this, neither has anyone else I know and some of them go back a ways.
Seems all bets are off at this point.
Posted on 6/8/19 at 7:30 am to ScottieP
Can you post this on the OT thread?
Posted on 6/9/19 at 7:44 am to Ignignot
quote:what does this matter?
Did you live your whole life in south la?
Posted on 6/9/19 at 7:45 am to keakar
quote:
sure, politicians dont control what government agency policy is and what actions they do or dont take regardless of any standing policy
you must believe in the tooth fairy as well
you don't know how things work do you?This post was edited on 6/10/19 at 9:21 am
Posted on 6/9/19 at 3:33 pm to CarRamrod
Am I wrong in thinking the the ExxonMobil chem plant and refinery are not protected by the levee. There is a big arse ditch that runs through the plant and goes all the way to the airport!
Cubic feet is definitely a metric that can trigger the opening of Morganza. The threat of over topping is another one.
Cubic feet is definitely a metric that can trigger the opening of Morganza. The threat of over topping is another one.
Posted on 6/9/19 at 4:21 pm to ScottieP
quote:
Its flow,flow,flow, that triggers the opening.
Correct me if I'm wrong about this but isn't it true that flow can't be measured directly? The trigger is flow as you said but flow is derived from river stages. Stage = x; thus flow = y. And this relationship changes over time as the riverbed silts in?
This post was edited on 6/9/19 at 7:09 pm
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