Lumber prices !!!!!

We are running our sawmill 12 hours a day, 6 days a week. Weve have a fabrication company that comes in at night now to do all the maintenance so we don't have any down time. We are hitting this market as hard as we can, for as long as we can.

It won't last. But it's fun while it does.

Curious as to what has caused prices to spike?

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LSUintheNW

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Yeah. That's all bullshite.


I mean. You just don't know what you're talking about here.

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Curious as to what has caused prices to spike?

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Canada has been lying about their harvest for decades. They've been over cutting their forests and saying they had plenty of wood left. They can't hid the lie any more. Their production is plummeting.

Covid shut a lot of mills down. At first, we went through a period of like three weeks with no orders. Marker went into vapor lock. So everyone shut down. And then demand exploded.

Record low interest rates and a loosening lending environment. We still have pent up demand from after the 2008-10 home building crisis. We need about 1.3m new homes a year in the us. But from 2008 to 2015 we averaged building about 800,000. Then that number finally got up to about 1.2m in 2018. Demand is finally catching up.

DIY is booming. Sales of fencing, decking, interior wall boards, etc is just bananas. People are fixing up their houses, building out home offices, converting garages, etc.

Those are the issues that come to mind.

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But it is not.

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But it is So.

Look. I've been in the forest products business my entire life. I have a Master's Degree in it. Plus 25 years of industry experience.

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So, if we were using less trees in paper mills it wouldn't drop the price of trees?

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Not a dime.

Let me give you three reasons. And I'll stop at three. But it should be enough to convince you to shut up and go away.

1) Hemp fiber sells for about $250 to $300 a ton. Right now, pulp wood to make pulp sells for about $5 a ton. So it never was an issue of politics or some stupid stoner story about some guy who wanted to sell his trees for more money so he outlawed hemp. Focus on this: wood fiber is way, way, way cheaper than hemp fiber. That's it. That's all.

2) You can't make most pulp bases products from hemp. Corrugated containerboard could theoretically be made from hemp. Although it would be atrociously expensive. But the major products: fluff pulp, chemical pulp, uncoated freesheat, Kraft liner board, etc. Those can't be made from hemp.

3) do you know how many millions of metric tons of wood fiber goes into the pulp industry every year? The average paper mill uses 5 million TONS of wood fiber a year. And there are hundreds of paper mills in the US and Canada. Literally hundreds of million of tons. There is no way in God's green earth that we could produce anything like that amount of hemp. We would literally starve to death in the process. It would take the majority of the 200 million acres of farm land currently devoted to grain production. Chicken and beef would cost $50 a pound. And paper would still be way more expensive than it is now.



Should I go on????? Because I can.....

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What the fricks your problem?

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Want to stick to the bullshite story some stoner dude told you about some big company conspiracy to stifle the hemp industry? Or you want to accept facts? You seem pretty comfortable with your position. So, back it up. Or, bag the lies and misinformation. Choice is yours.

When do you see the lumber prices returning to a more Normal level? We have a DIY project my buddy and I plan to construct starting in November.

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When do you see the lumber prices returning to a more Normal level?

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I'm guessing 12-24 months from now. It will fall when the supply overtakes the demand, that could be when a recession starts.

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When do you see the lumber prices returning to a more Normal level? We have a DIY project my buddy and I plan to construct starting in November.

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Nov-Jan is the bottom of the DIY activity level. So usually prices drop then. Lots of builders, contractors, framers, and DIY guys are in the woods hunting then. And wives don't want construction projects going during the holidays. So it's a safe bet that lumber prices are the cheapest then.