Moratorium idles more than rigs

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While the moratorium is being contested in court, universities, industry groups and investment banks are producing calculations trying to understand what will happen if 33 deepwater drilling rigs go idle.

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Among many analysts there is early consensus on this: Although President Barack Obama's shut-down order is nominally for six months, the legislative and rule-writing process it will invoke means that realistically businesses should expect it will be a year or more before it is lifted -- and longer yet before deepwater rigs resume operations.

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But Hecht is among those saying that a year-long moratorium would be a game-changer, bursting out of the 1 percent fishing sector into the rest of the state economy.
By contrast, mining -- a large chunk of it offshore deepwater drilling idled by the White House moratorium -- is 16 percent of the state economic pie.
"You pull 10,000 workers out of the economy, that may be like shutting down five car plants in Detroit," Tulane's Smith said. "If not five, whether five or three or whatever, it's several major plants."

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