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re: Does BP develop this site again
Posted on 5/6/10 at 10:41 am to lsugradman
Posted on 5/6/10 at 10:41 am to lsugradman
I could be mistaken then.
All the stuff I read on it specified Little Jack as the source of all that oil. I am all too aware how false perceptions could come from the media though.
All the stuff I read on it specified Little Jack as the source of all that oil. I am all too aware how false perceptions could come from the media though.
0
Posted on 5/6/10 at 10:43 am to lsugradman
I don't know the recovery rate, but Tiber will come close to that 10% mark...
US proven reserves are at 21 billion barrels.
US proven reserves are at 21 billion barrels.
This post was edited on 5/6/10 at 10:44 am
Posted on 5/6/10 at 10:53 am to Volvagia
Big distinction here. Proven reserves are not the same as "Resource in place". Proven reserves are the oil very close to existing wells that are virtually certain to be produced in the near term. Resource in place is the total volume of oil in a field. Only a portion of that will ever be produced and an even smaller portion of that would qualify as proven reserves right now. Another thing with the Lower Wilcox is that the fields are huge but the reservoir and oil quality arent the greatest so the recovery factor isnt as good as some of the shallower reservoirs. In other words, of that 4 billion barrel estimate of resource in place, probably less than a billion will ever be recovered.
Posted on 5/6/10 at 11:00 am to lsugradman
BP, whose partners at Tiber are Petroleo Brasileiro SA and ConocoPhillips, said its discovery may hold 3 billion barrels of crude and natural gas. Of that total, the companies may be able to extract the equivalent of 450 million barrels of oil, said Leta Smith, a director at IHS Cambridge in Houston.
Tiber
Tiber
Posted on 5/6/10 at 11:18 am to lsugradman
quote:
Big distinction here
And here I thought that emboldening the word combined with talking about my not knowing how much was recoverable would have illustrated I was aware of that....
Posted on 5/6/10 at 11:21 am to Volvagia
quote:
Recently they found a SINGLE reserve in the Gulf (Which I think is now blocked from use due to the drilling ban...I dunno if it has already cleared the legal approval process for drilling) which single handedly increased the entire US's theoretical reserves by 50%
You did say this didnt you?
Posted on 5/6/10 at 11:25 am to lsugradman
quote:
may be able to extract the equivalent of 450 million barrels of oil
Thats the "contingent resource" estimate at Tiber. Of which probably only 10% could be booked as "proved reserves". So from a proven reserves standpoint it wont be close to 10% of the total proven US reserves. But I know what you are saying, that deepwater drilling has a huge impact on the US reserve base which is absolutely true but its more a collective impact from the play rather than any one field.
Posted on 5/6/10 at 11:32 am to lsugradman
Yes I did.
The error was talking someone elses word for it and not checking the US's theoretical reserve quantity, not one of definitions and concepts.
The point is that there is a shitton of oil out there.
The error was talking someone elses word for it and not checking the US's theoretical reserve quantity, not one of definitions and concepts.
The point is that there is a shitton of oil out there.
This post was edited on 5/6/10 at 11:34 am
Posted on 5/6/10 at 12:35 pm to Volvagia
a few definitions to add some clarity to the discussion:
original oil in place: the amount of oil that is theoretically in the ground. this number is affected mainly by reservoir geometry and the porosity of the hydrocarbon bearing rock.
recoverable oil: the oil that is expected to produce. this number is effected by the producing method of the reservoir (is there a large aquifer that will expand and push the oil out? will the the oil be pushed out by it's own pressure -- like deflating a baloon? etc), and reservoir parameters like permeability
proven reserves: oil/gas that the operator is 90% certain will be recovered. it has to almost be a sure thing. the methodology to calculate this number is very specific, and this number is reported to the SEC annulaly.
contingent reserves: oil/gas that will probably be produced w/ some certainty. most companies have their own methods and classifications on this.
resources: oil/gas that is in place but cannot be produced at this time either due to the lack of a market or lack of technology to produce it. an example of this is the large amount of gas offshore africa, for which there is no market to produce it -- if you can't produce and sell it, then it's of no value at the current time, but likely will be of value in the future.
these numbers are all revised throughout the life of the reservoir, w/ contingent classes of reserves either making their way into the "proven" category or being deleted due to new evidence that it won't be produced.
original oil in place: the amount of oil that is theoretically in the ground. this number is affected mainly by reservoir geometry and the porosity of the hydrocarbon bearing rock.
recoverable oil: the oil that is expected to produce. this number is effected by the producing method of the reservoir (is there a large aquifer that will expand and push the oil out? will the the oil be pushed out by it's own pressure -- like deflating a baloon? etc), and reservoir parameters like permeability
proven reserves: oil/gas that the operator is 90% certain will be recovered. it has to almost be a sure thing. the methodology to calculate this number is very specific, and this number is reported to the SEC annulaly.
contingent reserves: oil/gas that will probably be produced w/ some certainty. most companies have their own methods and classifications on this.
resources: oil/gas that is in place but cannot be produced at this time either due to the lack of a market or lack of technology to produce it. an example of this is the large amount of gas offshore africa, for which there is no market to produce it -- if you can't produce and sell it, then it's of no value at the current time, but likely will be of value in the future.
these numbers are all revised throughout the life of the reservoir, w/ contingent classes of reserves either making their way into the "proven" category or being deleted due to new evidence that it won't be produced.
This post was edited on 5/6/10 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 5/6/10 at 1:01 pm to oilfieldtiger
quote:
an example of this is the large amount of gas offshore africa, for which there is no market to produce it -- if you can't produce and sell it, then it's of no value at the current time, but likely will be of value in the future.
More of this will start to work its way over to the reserves category with the construction of the new LNG facility in Angola. But yeah the domestic market there is pretty much nonexistent currently.
Posted on 5/6/10 at 6:28 pm to lsugradman
Does anyone have a good idea of the pressure on the well head when it blew out?
Posted on 5/6/10 at 6:45 pm to Herman Frisco
High to quite high
Posted on 5/6/10 at 8:04 pm to Volvagia
quote:
ok, if you say so.
You say this like you are some kind of expert on the subject.
you are so used to lying yourself or being ironic yourself, you cant even read a straight sentence and accept it.
I dont have an engineering degree or any experience in the industry. I have been reading articles on the 'net as many here are. That's all. I referred to something that was attributed to a shell engineer yesterday and the responder above said, it was bs. What else can I say?
We will see what happens really, by and by.
There are a couple of doomsday posts on the internet now.
We will all know in a few weeks.
Posted on 5/6/10 at 8:35 pm to ottothewise
quote:
it was bs. What else can I say?
You can stop referencing those ridiculous articles and stating things you read on blogs as the "truth".
Posted on 5/6/10 at 9:11 pm to ottothewise
quote:
I dont have an engineering degree or any experience in the industry. I have been reading articles on the 'net as many here are. That's all. I referred to something that was attributed to a shell engineer yesterday and the responder above said, it was bs. What else can I say?
Won't deny a lot of it is the messenger and not the message.
If you wouldn't run from thread to thread posting the same crap over and over of whatever you happened to read with zero thought on your own regarding the validity of it...and not only incessantly repeating it, but also defending it.
Jesus, the point that you are repeating and defending in this thread stated that the central part of the "deposit" is located a 100 miles offshore and they are drilling at the outer edge 40 miles offshore.
He then states that the deposit is leaking natural gas in Louisiana near the Texas border, stretching as far inland as central Alabama, and also is in Florida
Doesn't take an industry insider to catch the bullshite and see he is talking out of his arse
This post was edited on 5/6/10 at 9:21 pm
Posted on 5/6/10 at 9:20 pm to ottothewise
quote:
We will all know in a few weeks
those who understand the situation know that it is not the catatrophic ecological disaster the media wants to pretend it is. Is the effect ignorable? No. Will it have a notable impact? Yes.
But it is a far cry from that to insisting that this will take out the reefs in FL like you have in the past, or that this will poison all of the oceans in the world like others have. This probably doesn't even rank in the top 20 in terms of oil spills (the worst of which occur on other countries), and yet you have folks running around like it's the end of the world.
Posted on 5/6/10 at 9:28 pm to ottothewise
quote:
the problem is that it is under such pressure, that next time, they need to set the concrete for a couple of weeks. Hopefully they will not act out the public hysteria after they drill the relief wells.
Man you don't have a clue about what you are talking about. Cement does not take weeks to set up only hours. That was not the problem to begin with. I would bet any amount of money that there was no wet cement in the hole when it blew out.
Posted on 5/7/10 at 8:24 am to mylsuhat
Someone's definitely been smoking.
I'm still not sure of the well geometry, but for simplicity, I'll assume 20000' TVD. You'd need roughly 160ppg mud to be balanced. More if shallower, less if deeper.
Not Possible to drill.
I'm still not sure of the well geometry, but for simplicity, I'll assume 20000' TVD. You'd need roughly 160ppg mud to be balanced. More if shallower, less if deeper.
Not Possible to drill.
Posted on 5/7/10 at 8:27 am to fiyahbyrd157
it's been reported it was ~14 ppg mud at ~18,000'.
Posted on 5/7/10 at 8:46 am to oilfieldtiger
That's sounds about right for the gulf.
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