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re: Time to discuss the Monty Hall problem (strategy and game show)
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:04 pm to genro
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:04 pm to genro
quote:
If the host doesn't know, it could knock your odds down to 0%. Because he could eliminate the door with a car.
You wouldn't make the pick in that scenario, the door would be opened and you lose.
3
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:06 pm to KosmoCramer
Not a lot of Mensa members in this thread
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:07 pm to KosmoCramer
That's what I was saying.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:08 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
You wouldn't make the pick in that scenario, the door would be opened and you lose.
hence the 0% odds
you quoted his post, rephrased it, and acted like he was wrong
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:10 pm to TH03
There would be no odds because you wouldn't make the pick. That was my point.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:11 pm to KosmoCramer
0% odds, no odds, blah
semantics
semantics
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:14 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
the host knows. stop creating a new problem to fit what you think is right
Okay, but what if there are 4 doors, 2 doors have cars, and 2 doors have goats. You have to pick 2doors. If you pick 2 goats you win the goats, if you pick 2 cars you win two cars. If you pick one of each you lose.
You pick 2 doors, then the host (who knows what's behind each door) elimates one door at random and opens one of your doors, revealing a goat. Should you open your remaining door, or should you switch to the final door if you're trying to win the goats?
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:16 pm to Huey Lewis
that's a new problem
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:16 pm to Huey Lewis
The surgeon is the boy's mother.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:16 pm to genro
that student's name?
Albert Einstein
Albert Einstein
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:19 pm to Huey Lewis
quote:
You pick 2 doors, then the host (who knows what's behind each door) elimates one door at random and opens one of your doors, revealing a goat. Should you open your remaining door, or should you switch to the final door if you're trying to win the goats?
You apply the same rules. You have a 50/50 chance in the first scenario. Since he removed one, you should switch the pick to increase your odds.
In this scenario I think you have a 75% chance of winning if you switch but there are things I'm not thinking about.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:32 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
what about this
-make the initial pick
-host removes 1/3 of the choices
-then they mix up and randomize the remaining 2 choices.
what are the odds you pick the car or goat?
This is a different scenario. Since the door removed is ALWAYS a goat, you absolutely have a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch. That is what makes the links dependent.
Read Genro's explanation:
quote:
If you pick a goat, switch and win.
If you pick a car, switch and lose.
What are the odds that you picked a goat? 2/3
That's where it is. Thats all that matters. The number of doors is more or less extraneous.
This post was edited on 4/8/14 at 8:34 pm
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:47 pm to FootballNostradamus
Regardless of how far out you want to extrapolate it (1000 doors, etc.), if you NEVER change your pick, Monte will always eliminate everything EXCEPT 1 car and one goat, leaving you with a 50/50 shot.
Likewise, if you change your pick EVERY time Monte exposes a new goat, he's still going to leave you with a 50/50 shot in the end.
Extrapolation theory dead!!!
Likewise, if you change your pick EVERY time Monte exposes a new goat, he's still going to leave you with a 50/50 shot in the end.
Extrapolation theory dead!!!
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:51 pm to livewire
I'm sure you're right and the mathematical geniuses who have spent time working this problem are wrong
Posted on 4/8/14 at 8:53 pm to TH03
Thanks man, that means a lot to me.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 9:00 pm to link
quote:Why is it a lie?
The point is: If you accept carrying the initial 3-door probabilities forward, the mathematical proofs are correct. But that is a lie;
Link?
Nice troll. Got me.This post was edited on 4/8/14 at 9:08 pm
Posted on 4/8/14 at 9:02 pm to livewire
quote:
Regardless of how far out you want to extrapolate it (1000 doors, etc.), if you NEVER change your pick, Monte will always eliminate everything EXCEPT 1 car and one goat, leaving you with a 50/50 shot. Likewise, if you change your pick EVERY time Monte exposes a new goat, he's still going to leave you with a 50/50 shot in the end. Extrapolation theory dead!!!
Lol you're an idiot.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 9:05 pm to FootballNostradamus
This is why I hate Bayesian statistics
Posted on 4/8/14 at 9:05 pm to FootballNostradamus
He's trolling. Hopefully this whole thread is a troll for humanities' sake.
Posted on 4/8/14 at 9:07 pm to FootballNostradamus
quote:
Read Genro's explanation:
quote:
That's where it is. Thats all that matters. The number of doors is more or less extraneous.
Sooooooo Genro says it, it's gold.
I say it, I'm an idiot.
Got it.
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