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Started By
Message
re: Potential Gulf Storm before Irma (NHC Dropped This)
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:02 pm to BRIllini07
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:02 pm to BRIllini07
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301757
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located over southwestern Louisiana and on newly
formed Tropical Storm Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Hurricane Center now is giving it a 20% in 5 days for development.
ABNT20 KNHC 301757
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located over southwestern Louisiana and on newly
formed Tropical Storm Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Hurricane Center now is giving it a 20% in 5 days for development.
1
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:07 pm to georgia
quote:
Speaking of Misinterpretation, I swear to God, I've been reading your posts in the storm thread, and I just realized after all of this time that you're not PJ.
My God, I hope I haven't been that inaccurate.
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:12 pm to Duke
quote:
My God, I hope I haven't been that inaccurate.
I was trying to figure out when the hell he got accurate and who taught him how to back up his research.
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:13 pm to rds dc
I'll believe it when peej forecasts it
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:23 pm to BRIllini07
Wow
Wouldn't that be a Cat 1 then go to a TS? Looks like it would dump a lot of rain on parts of La that were spared with Harvey
Wouldn't that be a Cat 1 then go to a TS? Looks like it would dump a lot of rain on parts of La that were spared with Harvey
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:25 pm to rds dc
I'm sure this is Trump's fault somehow
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:25 pm to Duke
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:25 pm to lsuman25
quote:
20% chance over 5 days for development.
Is that for TS or hurricane. Because that's a high chance if u ask me
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:26 pm to dukke v
TWC marking that area now as a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days
ETA: it's not marked on the NHC's map on its website
but I just saw it on lsuman25's post
ETA: it's not marked on the NHC's map on its website
but I just saw it on lsuman25's post
This post was edited on 8/30/17 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:28 pm to OceanMan
quote:
Is that for TS or hurricane. Because that's a high chance if u ask me
that would be for it developing tropical characteristics
so... even just a TD... not just a TS or hurricane
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:29 pm to Duke
quote:
Duke
Wasn't Ivan the last storm to do this? It crossed Florida and reformed and then doubled back down and hit Florida again.
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:30 pm to rt3
Reason why it's not marked is it's not suppose to develop until the weekend hence why no x there yet, not in the 2 days just yet.
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:30 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Reason why it's not marked is it's not suppose to develop until the weekend hence why no x there yet, not in the 2 days just yet.
they would put the circle with the lines through it to designate an area of potential development
ETA: here it is...
This post was edited on 8/30/17 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:33 pm to rt3
see above mine
This post was edited on 8/30/17 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:35 pm to rds dc
mother f&ck
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:39 pm to VABuckeye
quote:
Wasn't Ivan the last storm to do this? It crossed Florida and reformed and then doubled back down and hit Florida again
It's not the same parent circulation, unlike Ivan. This spin up will orginiate from a fronal type boundary that Harvey leaves behind as he transition into your more typical mid-latitude low.
Oh and Peej,
. You just gotta stop making proclamations on impacts based on models over a week out. The supercomputers aren't great that far out.
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:41 pm to Duke
Euro just blowing up Irma and sending her further south, and keeping this potential gulf storm further south than the 00z run, so far.
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:43 pm to slackster
Still in the Bay of Campeche @ 192 Hours:
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:50 pm to slackster
Keeps moving south at 216 hours
Posted on 8/30/17 at 1:58 pm to slackster
Huge Bremuda high strongly in place there. Don't see much sign of a trough getting ready to dig into the Midwest either.
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